Biggest decline in US productivity in 74 years

[Walt]

1,000 widgets + 0 widgets = 1,000 widgets, NOT 500. Productivity remains at 1,000 widgets...

No, production remains 1,000. Productivity by factories becomes 500.

1,000 / 1 = 1,000.
(1,000 + 0) / 2 = 500.

Raw material is the input. A factory is not raw material.

The two big inputs that modern productivity look at is labor and capital. Raw materials cost capital, but not as much as you would think.

 

[Into the Night]

I believe she was very competent, I just could not be sure.

Why do you believe she is competent? Her pay? That means nothing!

For a while there, the average house in America was being sold in 8 days. There is no way to get an inspection in that short of a time. Literally, you are stuck making an offer based on a guess. This was the same thing.

Buying a house is not Microsoft. I inspect all the properties I buy.

Life is like that sometimes.

So you accept random people working in your group that you have no idea what they do, and you accept buying properties you having no idea what its condition is.

 

[Into the Night]

Yes, let's talk about CEO productivity! Let's test their productivity the same way- Their multi-million dollar annual salaries over number of hours worked vs. widgets sold.

I don't think companies are hurting because they are paying more for labor these days.

But, I do believe that Corporate America may be struggling because they have CEO's that are making $10,000 an hour playing carpet golf in the office instead of looking out for the best interests of their labor force or the companies they play carpet golf for!

So before any Corporation starts complaining about the cost of labor today- THEY SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO TELL US HOW MUCH THEY ARE PAYING THEIR CEO'S AND HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT THAT!

I THINK WE MAY HAVE JUST DISCOVERED THE REAL PROBLEM HERE!

THANKS!

They are hurting due to government interference.

 

[Into the Night]

No, the amount of output stays the same. The productivity is 500 per factory, because there is more inputs (factories).

The output IS productivity. Factories are not inputs.

You are just plain stupid. You are adding nothing to the debate. I am becoming dumber having to explain this to you over and over again. It really is not worth my time.

Too late. You are already too dumb to understand.

 

[Into the Night]

Just because a company does not make its own pencils does not prevent it from keeping its business processes in house.
Microsoft I believe is a good example.

Nope. Every computer inside Microsoft is built by many people in factories scattered across the globe.
Microsoft also depends heavily on contractors to do the actual coding and testing. Full time people there just 'manage' it, and do relatively little coding or testing. After a year of service, those contractors leave, taking their knowledge with them.

Ever wonder why Windows is such a piece of shit?

 

[Into the Night]

On a surface level, you got it right. Walt seems to think that lower productivity is somehow actually higher productivity... As ITN called it, "bad math".

But to expand upon your "back to back quarters of productivity falling" statement, I just want to be clear that what you are making reference to is a GDP number. A more precise and accurate way to state your claim is that the GDP number has been negative for two consecutive quarters . Productivity in and of itself has actually been down for quite some time longer than that (ever since the 2020 COVID shutdowns that Democrats did).

Now, how can this be? I will provide you with an example to clarify:

Q1: 100 widgets produced @ $10/widget final widget value = $1,000.00 monetary value of widgets
Q2: 80 widgets produced @ $13/widget final widget value = $1,040.00 monetary value of widgets

Under this scenario, the productivity of widgets has decreased by 20%, yet due to a 30% increase in final widget value, the GDP number still ended up increasing by 4% even though productivity has actually decreased.

This is why one needs to be careful with regard to referencing GDP numbers by themselves when trying to make sense of the condition of the economy. And yes, I know that it is claimed that the GDP number "accounts for inflation", but that claim is incorrect.

Well described. Thanks.

 

[Geeko Sportivo]

They are hurting due to government interference.

Wow! WHAT A CATCHY PHRASE!

Seems you don't even have to be very smart to say it.

Seems you don't even have to prove it.

Seems you use this excuse for every political issue!

SEEMS PEOPLE CAN SAY ANYTHING- AND SOME IDIOTS WILL ALWAYS BELIEVE IT WITHOUT EVEN QUESTIONING IT!

WOW HOW EASY IS THAT?

BUT MOST OF ALL, SEEMS MOST PEOPLE DO NOT AGREE WITH YOU!

 

[Walt]

Why do you believe she is competent?

She had great recommendations, and was working on a research team that did great work. She had fantastic grades, from an Ivy League engineering school, both undergrad, and grad. She presented herself well in an interview.

I recommended hiring her, because I thought she was probably competent, but I was not sure. Even if I had been sure, the salary bidding quickly got out of the range I felt comfortable recommending. Assuming she does well at Microsoft, I will always question my decisions.

Even if I had recommended going higher than $300k, I doubt we could have gotten that. I do not have absolute power at work.

Buying a house is not Microsoft. I inspect all the properties I buy.

For a while there, houses were being sold sight unseen, and certainly without a full inspection. 8 days average from listing to closing is insane.

In that sort of market, you have two choices. Either move fast, and make mistakes, but hopefully too few mistakes to sink you, or get out of the market. Not being in the market can cost you dearly. I certainly regret missing out on hiring this candidate.

So you accept random people working in your group that you have no idea what they do, and you accept buying properties you having no idea what its condition is.

Yes, you have to accept you will not have all the facts before moving. If you wait to have all the facts, it will be too late. So you try to prioritize getting the facts you need the most.

 

[gfm7175]

Covid was so beyond our experience that we have no clue what it all means.

Even more QED of libtards being incapable of answering a simple yes/no question. Apparently you wish to be dishonest instead. Here's the question again:

Did shutting down the economy (covid lockdowns) "raise average productivity"?

The economic numbers are all messed up,

Ain't THAT the truth! That's due to a combination of two things:
1) Biden Regime policies, especially energy policies.
2) Biden Regime fudging of official economic numbers, attempting to make themselves look as good as possible at opportune times.

because they are based on extrapolation from a smaller amount of data, but no one knows whether that extrapolation is correct anymore...

A lot of these numbers are just made-up numbers anyway, and the methodology behind coming up with them changes depending on how the corrupt government wishes to manipulate those numbers to gain the desired end result (e.g., "low unemployment").

Actually, we know it is off, because numbers that are supposed to be close are far apart. We just do not know how they are off.

What "numbers" are you even referring to here?

Workplaces were shutdown

** shut down... it is two words in this instance, not one. A shutdown indeed occurred, but workplaces were shut down (by Demonkkkrats). Learn English.

because of how essential they were, not on how productive they were.

The shutdowns had nothing to do with productivity nor a subjective sense of "essentiality". They were purely political (as a part of further advancing the 6uild 6ack 6etter Green New Deal agenda). Demonkkkrats kept Wal-Mart and Kroger open while bending ma and pa over furniture.

Right now, economists are lost.

Ain't THAT the truth! That's because they tend to be political hacks instead of being honest.

They are trying as fast as they can to get their bearings, but it will take time. You want an instant recession called... The reality is it will take them a record long time to figure out if there was a recession.

You are way behind the times. There is already a depression, and that has occurred since the beginning of 2020 due to Demonkkkrat induced shutdowns. This depression is only going to get worse.

 

[Walt]

Q1: 100 widgets produced @ $10/widget final widget value = $1,000.00 monetary value of widgets
Q2: 80 widgets produced @ $13/widget final widget value = $1,040.00 monetary value of widgets

Production is adjusted for inflation/price, so 80 widgets is fewer than 100 widgets, not more. And that is not even productivity, because you are not calculating it divided by inputs.

 

[Into the Night]

Covid was so beyond our experience that we have no clue what it all means.

I know exactly what it means. It was a political tool used by Democrats to make Trump look bad. Some Democrats have even admitted (like Pelosi did recently).

The economic numbers are all messed up, because they are based on extrapolation from a smaller amount of data, but no one knows whether that extrapolation is correct anymore... Actually, we know it is off, because numbers that are supposed to be close are far apart. We just do not know how they are off.

Void argument fallacy. What numbers?

Workplaces were shutdown because of how essential they were, not on how productive they were.

Who are the Democrats to decide whether a business is 'essential'??????!?

Some people were sent home, and so not counted against productivity numbers, but other were sent home, and paid, so were counted against productivity numbers.

You can't run a lathe or any other machine from home. You can't make hamburgers at McDonald's from home. You can't use a service bay at a car repair shop from home. You can't fly a plane or drive a truck from home. You can't sow, water, fertilize, plow, or harvest while in the house. You can't get cattle moved from one field to the next by staying in the house. You can't work in a warehouse at Amazon by staying at home. You can't run a water treatment plant by staying home. You can't run a power plant by staying home.

You're a lazy ass...you know that? Do you have ANY IDEA how many people it takes to allow you to stay home???????!?

...and for what??? Viruses don't care where you are. An airborne virus is AIRBORNE. It goes everywhere. Staying at home does NOT protect you!

Social distancing meant a lot of production went much slower.

...and for what??? Airborne viruses easily float intact for 6 feet.

Millions of people learned how to work from home, and whenever you have to learn a new skill at work, your productivity goes down.

Not a new skill. It is not possible to work from home for most types of work.

When an entire system has to learn a new skill, and there are not best practices yet, you are looking a massive decline in productivity.

No. NO productivity. You cannot work a tire shop from home.

Also people were lost in the cross over. There are people who still have jobs, and apartments, in NYC, but are living with their parents in Ohio. The BLS is not finding them, because they are not where the BLS is looking.

Fixating on single numbers of questionable source is meaningless. Argument from randU fallacy. Special pleading fallacies.

Right now, economists are lost.

You don't get to speak for everyone. You only get to speak for you. Omniscience fallacy.

They are trying as fast as they can to get their bearings, but it will take time.

Cliche fallacy.

You want an instant recession called...

No.

The reality is it will take them a record long time to figure out if there was a recession.

The economy is already in a state of depression. It has been for three years and running.

 

[Into the Night]

Wow! WHAT A CATCHY PHRASE!

Seems you don't even have to be very smart to say it.

Seems you don't even have to prove it.

Seems you use this excuse for every political issue!

SEEMS PEOPLE CAN SAY ANYTHING- AND SOME IDIOTS WILL ALWAYS BELIEVE IT WITHOUT EVEN QUESTIONING IT!

WOW HOW EASY IS THAT?

BUT MOST OF ALL, SEEMS MOST PEOPLE DO NOT AGREE WITH YOU!

So you want to deny Biden's executive orders, existing regulations, and history....gotit.

 

[Walt]

Did shutting down the economy (covid lockdowns) "raise average productivity"?

Economists will be studying that question for decades to come.

Ain't THAT the truth! That's due to a combination of two things:
1) Biden Regime policies, especially energy policies.
2) Biden Regime fudging of official economic numbers, attempting to make themselves look as good as possible at opportune times.

The first would literally have nothing to do with the ability to collect accurate economic numbers, and the second is completely untrue. Why would the Biden Administration alter numbers to make them look bad? Remember the numbers are all over the place, so many make the Biden Administration look bad. And how would they fudge numbers years before they even existed?

The last couple of years (even before Covid) have been economically unprecedented, so have been difficult to collect economic numbers on.

A lot of these numbers are just made-up numbers anyway, and the methodology behind coming up with them changes depending on how the corrupt government wishes to manipulate those numbers to gain the desired end result (e.g., "low unemployment").

The numbers are not made up. The biggest problem is the methodologies are not changing fast enough.

Demonkkkrat

Clearly, you lack the ability to discuss economics like an adult.

 

[Walt]

The output IS productivity.

Clearly you do not understand the most simple concepts of economics.

 

[Walt]

Nope. Every computer inside Microsoft is built by many people in factories scattered across the globe.

Microsoft mostly produces software, not hardware.

Microsoft also depends heavily on contractors to do the actual coding and testing. Full time people there just 'manage' it, and do relatively little coding or testing. After a year of service, those contractors leave, taking their knowledge with them.

Microsoft always says that their biggest asset goes home every day. If they contract out their programming, they are in danger of losing their greatest asset. They try to avoid that as much as possible.

Losing programers after a year would destroy a software company like Microsoft. It often takes a year for a system programmer to start being productive.

Ever wonder why Windows is such a piece of shit?

It would be far worse, if Microsoft was like you claim.

 

[Into the Night]

No, production remains 1,000. Productivity by factories becomes 500.

1,000 / 1 = 1,000.
(1,000 + 0) / 2 = 500.



The two big inputs that modern productivity look at is labor and capital. Raw materials cost capital, but not as much as you would think.

Math errors: Random number used as independent variable. Declaration of values not involved in equation. Use of base as sum. Use of sum as average. Distributive error.
Logic errors: Buzzword fallacies. Redefinition fallacies (capital<->money, productivity<->net, factory<->input). Argument from randU fallacy. Argument of the Stone fallacy. Argument by repetition (chanting). Attempted proof by contrivance.

 

[Into the Night]

Economists will be studying that question for decades to come.

Evasion. Answer the question put to you.

The first would literally have nothing to do with the ability to collect accurate economic numbers, and the second is completely untrue.

Lie. You can't claim zero percent inflation (which both Biden and Pelosi did!) when prices are still increasing and shortages are still occurring.

Why would the Biden Administration alter numbers to make them look bad?

They didn't. Pay attention.

Remember the numbers are all over the place, so many make the Biden Administration look bad.

No, they are 'not all over the place'. Cliche fallacy. Argument from randU fallacy.

And how would they fudge numbers years before they even existed?

They make 'em up. That's called a randU. It's a type of random number.

The last couple of years (even before Covid) have been economically unprecedented, so have been difficult to collect economic numbers on.

No, it hasn't.

The numbers are not made up.

Yes they are.

The biggest problem is the methodologies are not changing fast enough.

Numbers are not methodologies. Methodologies do not need to change at all.

Clearly, you lack the ability to discuss economics like an adult.

You are not discussing economics.

 

[Into the Night]

Clearly you do not understand the most simple concepts of economics.

LIF.

 

[Into the Night]

Microsoft mostly produces software, not hardware.

That's why I just said, dumbass. You can't produce software without hardware.

Microsoft always says that their biggest asset goes home every day. If they contract out their programming, they are in danger of losing their greatest asset. They try to avoid that as much as possible.

BULLSHIT.

Losing programers after a year would destroy a software company like Microsoft. It often takes a year for a system programmer to start being productive.

Microsoft isn't particularly productive. It has also been driven out of several major markets. They are currently losing the desktop market, particularly for development workstations.

It would be far worse, if Microsoft was like you claim.

Apparently you aren't aware of how bad it is at Microsoft.

 

[Walt]

Evasion. Answer the question put to you.

Pandemics have not been part of economics for so long, economists seriously do not have the answers to your questions. When the answers are not known, I give the honest answer, it is not known yet.

It is going to be interesting to read the papers that are written on this subject over the next couple of decades.

The rest of Nights post goes downhill from the original stupidity.