Crazy Weather...

"Our analysis differs from others by including estimated temperatures up to 1200 km from the nearest measurement station (7). The resulting spatial extrapolations and interpolations are accurate for temperature anomalies at seasonal and longer time scales at middle and high latitudes, where the spatial scale of anomalies is set by Rossby waves (7). Thus we believe that the remarkable Arctic warmth of 2005 is real, and the inclusion of estimated arctic temperatures is the primary reason for our rank of 2005 as the warmest year. Other characteristics of our analysis method are summarized in footnote (8).

"The ranking of individual years, however, depends upon differences of only a few hundredths of a degree, which is finer than the accuracy that any method can achieve given observational limitations."

Hmmm.....
"Climate models show that the rate of warming is consistent with expectations "

"However, the error bar on the data implies that 2005 is practically in a dead heat with 1998, the warmest previous year."

So the scientists thought the rate of warming would be practically flat over the last 8 years?
One of the first things to note is that the analysis included model generated data.
 
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/2005_fig2.gif

Now take a look at the graph from the site... at both the global AND the lower lat graphs.... are they higher/lower or about the same as 1998?

But, now you're retreating away from the discussion about global mean temperatures.

This graph is showing seasonal resolution. The website itself states that in 1998 there was an unusual El Nino event that overlays and affects (positively) the mean trends.
 
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I love it...

Republicans in the 90's... Climate Change... Ha, you idiots, its not happening. Stop being a chicken little.

Republicans in the 00's... Cimate Change... Okay its happening, but not for the reasons you say. Its a natural thing.

Republicans in the 10's... I wish those liberals would get on board with our goal of protecting the planet from this Climate Change. This is not about what our position was in the 90's its about what we can do about it now!
 
Cypress... natural events like El Nino occur... they will continue to occur. I was not retreating from the "global mean temperature" discussion. I was trying to ADD to it. But if you want to look at the global mean only, then take a look back at what you posted. The only reason 2005 was above 1998 was because they added in what was happening at the POLES. They extrapolated that data as there are no weather monitoring stations there.

A question I would like answered (because I do not understand it).... Why is it that the poles are increasing at rates higher than the rest of the globe if MAN is the main cause of global warming?

Is there something we are doing that causes the "greenhouse" affect to center more on the poles? Or is it that the earth is still recovering naturally from the ice age?

The above questions are not meant to be argumentative as I do not have the answer and simply would like to understand it better.
 
A question I would like answered (because I do not understand it).... Why is it that the poles are increasing at rates higher than the rest of the globe if MAN is the main cause of global warming?

Very simple.

Because of the albedo effect of snow and ice. The poles warm faster, because as the snow and ice melt, more land and water is exposed. Land and water absorb heat much more than snow and ice. Ice is basically a reflector, that reflects most solar radiation back into space.

That's why what happens at the poles, is the proverbial canary in a coal mine, telling us what's happening with the rate and extent of global warming.
 
A question I would like answered (because I do not understand it).... Why is it that the poles are increasing at rates higher than the rest of the globe if MAN is the main cause of global warming?

Very simple.

Because of the albedo effect of snow and ice. The poles warm faster, because as the snow and ice melt, more land and water is exposed. Land and water absorb heat much more than snow and ice. Ice is basically a reflector, that reflects most solar radiation back into space.

That's why what happens at the poles, is the proverbial canary in a coal mine, telling us what's happening with the rate and extent of global warming.


Is there something we are doing that causes the "greenhouse" affect to center more on the poles? Or is it that the earth is still recovering naturally from the ice age?

Again, on a global scale, as CO2 continues to rise in the atmosphere and warming continues, the poles are more susceptible to increased warming, because of the albedo effect of snow and ice. On a quantitative scale, you'll see temperature rise higher and faster at the poles, than at lower latitudes.
 
Cypress... again, just asking...

But is there evidence that this is caused by MAN? If the earth has been recovering since the ice age and the glaciers have been pulling back since then, wouldn't it logically mean that as more land was exposed as you mentioned that the pace of the glacier retreat would subsequently pick up speed over time...naturally?
 
Because... this...."Because of the albedo effect of snow and ice. The poles warm faster, because as the snow and ice melt, more land and water is exposed. Land and water absorb heat much more than snow and ice. Ice is basically a reflector, that reflects most solar radiation back into space. "

Is exactly what I thought was happening... but naturally.

Side note: thanks for keeping this a cival discussion. It is appreciated. Thanks as well for your patience in explaining it to a novice. :)
 
Looks like Thorn and leaningright may get an ice storm today and tomorrow. That's not fun, not even for kids. Maybe you'll get some snow way up there on the fringes of the system though.

We got the edges of an ice-storm on Sunday night. After church it started freezing. We had some folks at the house to play cards and lost power about 8:45 pm. Played by coal oil lamp after that. Power came back on Monday am. No school that day for MLK day and then out Tuesday because of the roads. The really bad stuff just missed us by about 25 miles. Two counties over there are about 20,000 people without power. Looks like there might be another winter weather system through this weekend but that's a few days out yet....it might change.
 
We got the edges of an ice-storm on Sunday night. After church it started freezing. We had some folks at the house to play cards and lost power about 8:45 pm. Played by coal oil lamp after that. Power came back on Monday am. No school that day for MLK day and then out Tuesday because of the roads. The really bad stuff just missed us by about 25 miles. Two counties over there are about 20,000 people without power. Looks like there might be another winter weather system through this weekend but that's a few days out yet....it might change.

And yet in my part of the coutry this has been a very mild winter.
No snow yet and only 4 days so far below 20 deg. Very unusual.
 
Cypress... again, just asking...

But is there evidence that this is caused by MAN? If the earth has been recovering since the ice age and the glaciers have been pulling back since then, wouldn't it logically mean that as more land was exposed as you mentioned that the pace of the glacier retreat would subsequently pick up speed over time...naturally?


But is there evidence that this is caused by MAN?

I'm not an expert - there a several lines of evidence from what I understant.

One of the most powerful lines of evidence is carbon isotopes. Carbon isotopes from fossil fuels and other hydrocarbons have a different signature, than carbon naturally found in atmospheric CO2. And measurements of carbon isotopes in the atmospheric CO2 have now been demonstrated to bear the signature fingerprint of carbon isotopes from fossil fuels
 
Heck the entire world is a novice on this global warming/climate change thing.
It is. I think that preparing for the change is as important as working to protect the environment though. We may not be able to change it, we might not even be causing it.

I think the cause can be linked to the number of scientists on the continent of Antarctica. As the number of scientists rise, so does the global warming.

It can also be linked to the lessening number of people wearing pirate garb.
 
Or it can be linked to the rise in the republican party. Or the popularity of "relality" shows, lots of other things going on :D
 
Cypress... again, just asking...

But is there evidence that this is caused by MAN? If the earth has been recovering since the ice age and the glaciers have been pulling back since then, wouldn't it logically mean that as more land was exposed as you mentioned that the pace of the glacier retreat would subsequently pick up speed over time...naturally?

Indeed, as the glaciers from the last ice age melted, the earth warmed as a result of the lack of albedo from all the ice.

The current rate of warming is totally outside the boundaries of natural variation that we seen in the tree ring and ice core records. From what I understand, natural variation (albedo, solar forcing, etc) cannot account for the acceleration and rate of warming we're seeeing.
 
It is. I think that preparing for the change is as important as working to protect the environment though. We may not be able to change it, we might not even be causing it.

I think the cause can be linked to the number of scientists on the continent of Antarctica. As the number of scientists rise, so does the global warming.

It can also be linked to the lessening number of people wearing pirate garb.
We might not, but then again we might. The time to close the barn door is before the horses escape, not after.

There is considerable evidence that the carbon load in the atmosphere is indeed due to human activity. The isotopic signature of atmospheric carbon dioxide today looks much more like industrial waste than it does vulcanism or plant respiration.
 
We might not, but then again we might. The time to close the barn door is before the horses escape, not after.

There is considerable evidence that the carbon load in the atmosphere is indeed due to human activity. The isotopic signature of atmospheric carbon dioxide today looks much more like industrial waste than it does vulcanism or plant respiration.
Hence the reason I said, "as important as" not "more important than".

Protecting other life is encumbent on us. Especially to those Christians who were given "Dominion" over the planet. Dominion denotes more than Lordship, it also denotes responsibility toward. (Also to us Buddhists who believe that all life is irrevocably linked together...) Even to those who follow only logic, logic tells us that without a safe environment we are unlikely to survive.

There is also considerable evidence that in the past the carbon load increased after the warming, not before it. So, while the carbon load at this time might be causing warming, it is unlikely to have caused it in the past. Some of the models are skewed by inaccurately describing this phenomena.
 
I think we should prepare for it AND we should try to reverse it.

Finally the more enlightened conservatives are comming around to it, in 15 years they will claim they always knew Global Warming was real. Hopefully that will not be too late!
 
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