house races....

PostmodernProphet said:
no.....not in congressional races....2.4 million votes in Los Angeles County will not elect a senator in Arizona or a representative in Michigan.......look at the individual polls.....
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Soon we will have liberals it isn’t fair that individual districts elect their representatives.

Soon they will call for a National election of all races.

It is funny that when in power they made no moves to pack the court, eliminate the Electoral College or eliminate the Senate

But for some reason BACasscancer thinks all of his wishes will come true this November

I fear that if the democrats don’t take back the House that he will become so despondent that he will kill himself and deprive me the joy of knowing his ass cancer is going to kill him
 
PostmodernProphet said:
over the last 30 days, the house race has firmed up.....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html#previous_changes

from 206 leaning Dem, 189 leaning Rep 40 tossup....Dems have actually DROPPED to 204, Republicans have added 10 to 199, and toss ups are now 32....

for those 32 seats almost all incumbents lead in the polls....eight are open seats......I predict the demmycrats will take ten in all.....leaving them four short of controlling the House......
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Conor Lamb still holds a double-digit lead over Keith Rothfus. :good4u:

"Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) has a 12-point lead over opponent Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) in the nation’s only incumbent-versus-incumbent contest of the midterms. Lamb and Rothfus are running in Pennsylvania's newly-drawn 17th District.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled in January that the state’s congressional map is the result of gerrymandering to the point that it violates the state constitution. It ordered the map be redrawn before the midterm elections."
 
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christiefan915 said:
Conor Lamb still holds a double-digit lead over Keith Rothfus. :good4u:

"Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) has a 12-point lead over opponent Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) in the nation’s only incumbent-versus-incumbent contest of the midterms. Lamb and Rothfus are running in Pennsylvania's newly-drawn 17th District.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled in January that the state’s congressional map is the result of gerrymandering to the point that it violates the state constitution. It ordered the map be redrawn before the midterm elections."
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of course the state SC had approved it before the dems got control of the court.....now the demmycrats gerrymandered the 17th so badly that no one who voted in the district two years ago even lives there any more....RCP does list the district as belonging to you......my post is about the toss up states.....
 
This happens. Happened in 2016. These days the conservatives really have trouble saying they support the GOP so they have to wait until the DNC screws up to pile on as "Anti-" Whatever/Whoever instead of Pro-Trump/GOP
 
recent changes.....
10/21 TX22 Safe GOP »»» Likely GOP 205 31 199
10/21 FL6 Safe GOP »»» Likely GOP 205 31 199
10/21 IL14 Toss Up »»» Leans GOP 205 31 199
10/19 MI11 Leans Dem »»» Toss Up 205 32 198
10/19 OH10 Safe GOP »»» Likely GOP 205 32 198
10/19 CO3 Safe GOP »»» Likely GOP 205 32 198
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Teflon Don said:
Which means Republicans have 25% chance of keeping the House. That is a highly likely outcome

You are looking at 75% like it is 100%. It is not. You dolts made the same mistake in 2016
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No. 1 in 4 is not highly likely It isn't even likely.. Likely is over 50. Highly likely would be much higher. But there is a chance. What a disaster that would be.
 
Nordberg said:
No. 1 in 4 is not highly likely It isn't even likely.. Likely is over 50. Highly likely would be much higher. But there is a chance. What a disaster that would be.
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You don’t understand statistics or probabilities

As long as there is Russia and Saudi Arabia you will never have to
 
Teflon Don said:
You don’t understand statistics or probabilities

As long as there is Russia and Saudi Arabia you will never have to
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Actually. I do. Explained it to you, but I knew you could not follow it.It clashes with your far right preconception. Most of the time I know the posts are too tough for you, but there are lots of other readers. Perhaps they can think about it.
 
Nordberg said:
Actually. I do. Explained it to you, but I knew you could not follow it.It clashes with your far right preconception. Most of the time I know the posts are too tough for you, but there are lots of other readers. Perhaps they can think about it.
Click to expand...

Let me phrase it a different way, A one in four outcome is very common. It is not uncommon. Remember, they had Crooked Hillary at a 92% chance to win

But, like I said, as long as you have Russia and Saudi Arabia, you never have to lose an election
 
countryboy said:
Wait, you think RCP leans right? :laugh:
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I notice a conservative bias.

"Though their own political views lean conservative, the site’s founders say their goal is to give readers “ideological diversity” in its commentary section. In reviewing their political news and opinions there are slightly more that are published from right leaning sources, however both sides are represented. Real Clear Politics is perhaps best known for their RCP Polling Average, which combines all polling data to create a statistical average. Overall, we rate RCP as right-center biased based on source selection that leans right and high for factual reporting."

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/
 
Nordberg said:
All polls are.. sorrier. But they are guidelines. They are pretty damn close at election time.
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The final polls are usually very close (including the 2016 presidential race). However, generic polls reveal little. For example, in some states the Democratic candidate for governor is ahead while the Republican candidate for senator is winning.

History tells us the president's party will lose seats--we just don't know how many. The average is 26 House seats.
 
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