When we all emerge from hibernation, the virus will still be there, and some of us (more or less the same number) will still get sick.
The idea was to “flatten the curve” by prolonging the epidemic, so that hospital resources would not be overwhelmed at any one time.
We now know that projections of hospital and ICU use were wildly inaccurate. That means that the “flatten the curve” rationale was bullshit.
Models pointed to large outbreaks of the virus washing over the country this week. Right now hospitals are managing just fine almost everywhere—well below capacity, in fact.
Even in Blue York Shitty, the estimates of the beds and ventilators needed has been grossly wide of the mark.
They’d estimated a need for 140,000 beds by last Friday, but only needed 8,500.
Looking around the country, it doesn’t appear that any hospitals are using the emergency facilities they urgently threw up around the country.
Even Louisiana got through its surge without being overwhelmed.
Washington DC is supposedly 8 days past the peak as gauged by the ridiculous IHME model, and nothing of note has happened.
The expected epidemics haven’t materialized, indicating that there are big problems with the models, which made baseless assumptions about either the disease’s case fatality rate or its contagiousness (or both).
Note that social distancing should only now just be affecting hospital capacity – given that there’s a 3-week lag between when social distancing can begin to bring down new infections that can then progress to hospitalization severity.
Most places only locked down at the end of March, so the lack of hospital utilization right now isn’t due to social distancing.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/some-rational-perspectives-on-covid-19.php