So, where are we with herd immunity?

Hawkeye10 said:
The latest guess, and it is a guess because our public health intelligentsia deeply suck at their jobs, is that 1/3 of Americans immune systems encountered SARS-COV2 last year. This year the very fit Delta version is on a romp. We might be reasonably close to something good. On the other hand it is now clear that this bug will, if it has not already, completely evade the current so called vaccines, making them useless.
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that what you really think? Wow. I cannot imagine how you got there unless you wanted to so badly. Self-delusion in a pandemic is dangerous.
 
We know that it is not uncommon for even those who develop COVID symptoms to develop a very weak to undetectable anti-body response. What we dont know, I argue because our experts suck, is to what degree the B and T cells are trained, and for how long they stay trained, in mild COVID and asymptomatic infection.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
This is interesting and hopeful: I saw a report that there is a study that shows that those who had SARS-COV1 have substantial immunity to SARS-COV2, which would argue that those who defeat SARS-COV2 are likely to have substantial immunity to all variants, and it is likely to be durable, maybe even lifetime.
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One of the ironies here is that it’s *plausible* [NOT a prediction] that the natural immunity number may be the only one that matters. That would explain why the case numbers don’t show any signs of abating even though we’re sneaking up on 90% herd immunity—when the naturally immune are added to the vax numbers.

The vax was designed for Covid 1.0. Maybe it’s less effective verses Covid 2.0 and so on. In contrast, since naturally acquired immunity is broad spectrum [not just targeting the spikes but the whole virus] it should have more efficacy against the variants.

If that’s the case a shift should be made towards a *targeted* vax campaign because we [this is the scary part for the fanatics lol] may ‘need’ the young/healthy cohort’s natural immunity.

One of the most frustrating things in this whole affair has been the medical bureaucracy’s *utter refusal* to adapt or come off their damned one size fits all approach.
 
Darth Omar said:
One of the ironies here is that it’s *plausible* [NOT a prediction] that the natural immunity number may be the only one that matters. That would explain why the case numbers don’t show any signs of abating even though we’re sneaking up on 90% herd immunity—when the naturally immune are added to the vax numbers.

The vax was designed for Covid 1.0. Maybe it’s less effective verses Covid 2.0 and so on. In contrast, since naturally acquired immunity is broad spectrum [not just targeting the spikes but the whole virus] it should have more efficacy against the variants.

If that’s the case a shift should be made towards a *targeted* vax campaign because we [this is the scary part for the fanatics lol] may ‘need’ the young/healthy cohort’s natural immunity.

One of the most frustrating things in this whole affair has been the medical bureaucracy’s *utter refusal* to adapt or come off their damned one size fits all approach.
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If you go to the CDC site, they cite 6 months as the current estimate on the timeframe natural immunity lasts.

You can reject that. But let's say it's true, or that it's the 8 months someone else here mentioned - what does that do to the idea of getting to herd immunity through natural immunity?
 
BartenderElite said:
If you go to the CDC site, they cite 6 months as the current estimate on the timeframe natural immunity lasts.

You can reject that. But let's say it's true, or that it's the 8 months someone else here mentioned - what does that do to the idea of getting to herd immunity through natural immunity?
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We’ve been through this.

Fauci claims to not know how long it lasts. So, either he and the CDC aren’t communicating or the CDC is simply wrong. Instead of appealing to an authority, can you cite a study to back up that assertion? And btw, 8 months duration is kind of on the short for natural immunity.
 
Darth Omar said:
One of the ironies here is that it’s *plausible* [NOT a prediction] that the natural immunity number may be the only one that matters. That would explain why the case numbers don’t show any signs of abating even though we’re sneaking up on 90% herd immunity—when the naturally immune are added to the vax numbers.

The vax was designed for Covid 1.0. Maybe it’s less effective verses Covid 2.0 and so on. In contrast, since naturally acquired immunity is broad spectrum [not just targeting the spikes but the whole virus] it should have more efficacy against the variants.

If that’s the case a shift should be made towards a *targeted* vax campaign because we [this is the scary part for the fanatics lol] may ‘need’ the young/healthy cohort’s natural immunity.

One of the most frustrating things in this whole affair has been the medical bureaucracy’s *utter refusal* to adapt or come off their damned one size fits all approach.
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Everything in this post looks right. I have seen it posited that that the Vaccines might be interfering with natural immune response, and so when (it is not really if at this point) the bug gets all the way around the vaccines people will be even worse off than they would have been had they not taken a vax. That would make the Max Vax program even more of a calamity than it already looks like.

We'll see, but there is no doubt that how we are dealing with this pandemic is so completely incompetent and/or treasonous that it is insanity. .
 
Darth Omar said:
We’ve been through this.

Fauci claims to not know how long it lasts. So, either he and the CDC aren’t communicating or the CDC is simply wrong. Instead of appealing to an authority, can you cite a study to back up that assertion. And btw, and 8 months is kind of on the short for natural immunity.
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That's why I phrased my question as I did. I don't care about Fauci, or how much information you ignore.

I want to know: if immunity IS under a year...what does that do to herd immunity through natural immunity?

And if you're relying on mainly natural immunity - what information do you have that natural immunity lasts long enough to make that a viable option?
 
Does anyone know?

Given the rate of spread (and we can take an average rate, based on our experience w/ COVID) - how long would natural immunity need to last in order to achieve herd immunity without increased vaccination rates?

If it's going to be a plan, it should be mathematically viable. Does anyone have a rough calculation?
 
BartenderElite said:
That's why I phrased my question as I did. I don't care about Fauci, or how much information you ignore.

I want to know: if immunity IS under a year...what does that do to herd immunity through natural immunity?

And if you're relying on mainly natural immunity - what information do you have that natural immunity lasts long enough to make that a viable option?
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Since it’s not typical for natural immunity to fade in less than a year the default assumption is that it lasts longer than a year. You realize were aren’t even two years in, right? So it’s likely something there isn’t a good answer for—either way at this point. It’s likely what Fauci was alluding to. Maybe at this time next year we’ll have a good answer. Also, unless the ICU’s are being over run with ‘Round Two’ Covid patients [they’re not] that assumption seems pretty safe.

And I’m not relying solely on natural immunity. The Israeli study showed that it was up to 20X better than vax immunity. It seems to suggest a more targeted approach to the vax campaign.

I think it’s called ‘hedging the bet’. But since we’re all-in with ‘vax carpet bombing approach’ we’ll get to see how it plays out. I wish I felt good about it.
 
Darth Omar said:
Since it’s not typical for natural immunity to fade in less than a year the default assumption is that it lasts longer than a year. You realize were aren’t even two years in, right? So it’s likely something there isn’t a good answer for—either way at this point. It’s likely what Fauci was alluding to. Maybe at this time next year we’ll have a good answer. Also, unless the ICU’s are being over run with ‘Round Two’ Covid patients [they’re not] that assumption seems pretty safe.

And I’m not relying solely on natural immunity. The Israeli study showed that it was up to 20X better than vax immunity. It seems to suggest a more targeted approach to the vax campaign.

I think it’s called ‘hedging the bet’. But since we’re all-in with ‘vax carpet bombing approach’ we’ll get to see how it plays out. I wish I felt good about it.
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I mean, in short - you don't know.

Any way you slice it, we get there a LOT faster if significantly more people get vaxxed. But getting vaxxed has become political, so we'd rather invent plans that have no solid foundation in fact or science.

Or, maybe the vax is just super dangerous. Even though hundreds of millions have already gotten it.
 
It's kind of amazing to think about: if everyone got vaccinated, we'd have herd immunity within a month. Think of what that would mean for our lives and the economy.

We could move on from COVID, at least in terms of it having an impact on how we live & work. It's right there - the solution is right there.
 
Our ancestors through very expensive and painful lessons learned how to best handle pandemics.

We decided to ignore them.

Buckle Up Fuckers
 
BartenderElite said:
I mean, in short - you don't know.

Any way you slice it, we get there a LOT faster if significantly more people get vaxxed. But getting vaxxed has become political, so we'd rather invent plans that have no solid foundation in fact or science.

Or, maybe the vax is just super dangerous. Even though hundreds of millions have already gotten it.
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The OP point: if the vaccines acted like vaccines, we should be at or at least very near herd immunity. But since they aren’t very effective at stopping transmission we are plugging along like it’s still 2020. It’s a different subject but it’s contributing to vax hesitancy: if more people thought they’d be DONE with Covid after the vax more people would take it.

But you have Biden out there saying ‘the vaccinated need protected from the unvaccinated’. Wtf? That’s absurd. The vax’d should be IMMUNE and they aren’t.

Smoke this in your pipe: maybe the real heroes are the unvaccinated. They lay their lives on the line by catching the damn bug and since their 20X better immunity behaves more like actual immunity they are doing more to protect society than their ‘still-problematic’ vaccinated neighbors.
 
Darth Omar said:
The OP point: if the vaccines acted like vaccines, we should be at or at least very near herd immunity. But since they aren’t very effective at stopping transmission we are plugging along like it’s still 2020. It’s a different subject but it’s contributing to vax hesitancy: if more people thought they’d be DONE with Covid after the vax more people would take it.

But you have Biden out there saying ‘the vaccinated need protected from the unvaccinated’. Wtf? That’s absurd. The vax’d should be IMMUNE and they aren’t.

Smoke this in your pipe: maybe the real heroes are the unvaccinated. They lay their lives on the line by catching the damn bug and since their 20X better immunity behaves more like actual immunity they are doing more to protect society than their ‘still-problematic’ vaccinated neighbors.
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The bolded is absurd.

Where do you get 20X? Can you show me the calculations?

You don't even know how long natural immunity lasts.
 
Darth Omar said:
The study out of Israel showed that natural immunity is markedly better than vax immunity. Surprise-surprise.

The virus mutates too rapidly for us to ‘vaccinate ourselves out of a pandemic’. Zero Covid is a pipe dream and Australia is getting ready to destroy itself chasing after it.
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bingo

vaxxing still allows transmission -much the same as being unvaxxed in terms of transmission
The only advantage to vaxxing is it helps reduce the symptoms -but then therapeutics do the same.

So we either keep getting new vaxxes, or let the virus fade away due to natural (acquired) immunity
~~

Speaking of which..WHERE ARE THE NEW VAXES?? Trump got us multiple vaxx in 9 months!

what has Biden done to promote new vaxxes for delta? Nothing
Biden just runs around screaming "vaxx mandate" when the vaxxes we have lose efficacy
with each passing day
 
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