DigitalDave
Sexy Beast!
This is a thoughtful post which I like. You're right, we're nowhere near full automation YET. But all of the jobs you're saying we'll need manpower to fill will increasingly be taken over by the software/hardware we build - they are two ends of a tunnel moving toward one another; eventually they will collide. Eventually, (and the time when it will exactly happen is completely debatable) the machines will be self-aware and responsible for building and improving themselves, negating the need for all that manpower. It's coming sooner than many people think. We went from the Wright Brothers to the Moon Landing in well under the average American human lifespan.
The ever changing landscape that is software will never remove the need for developers. It can only create more opportunity for the less skilled. We help people do their every day jobs with less effort. Of course, there are sectors in our industry that helps US do our every day jobs with less effort, but nevertheless, we will be employed. Computers will always need someone to teach them, computers will always need someone to design them, computers will always need materials, computers will always need someone to sell them, and computers will always need an upgrade.
We're past the point of needing people to learn basic computing skills - it wouldn't do much good anyway, because those skills would become obsolete not long after they'd finished learning what they "needed" to know in the first place. Besides, we're continuously turning out people around the world with advanced computing skills, and they are continuously turning out technology that requires less people to maintain it, work with it etc, and indeed technology continues ramping up feeding a need for even fewer yet even more specialized tech workers with even more advanced computing skills all moving up to an ever sharpening point of expertise and further leaving more and more people behind as their skills and/or ability to learn them become increasingly obsolete as the technology continues to become more advanced.
I beg to differ. There are still other jobs to be had other than something a computer science degree will supply. We still need to prepare those sectors for what's ahead. They will more likely than not, have a computer or a tablet to do their job.
On the tech side, the more specialized things have become, the more jobs have been created. It's quite the opposite from what you assume. Here's an example of how things have evolved. When I started programming 13 years ago, I built websites from scratch in classic ASP and sometimes in Perl. I also knew Coldfusion. Those were the three big languages used to build a site. I could do any of them. Since then, we've seen a multitude of new languages arrive and take over niche markets. I still get calls asking to replace old Coldfusion sites into some of these new technologies. So now there is a job for us 'old foggies' still, but jobs for the new breed as well. Not only that, but the new breed has become more specialized within itself. No longer so they build a site from scratch, they form teams to handle different aspects of the site. We have UI developers specializing in whatever Javascript library they choose, and a .Net, Python, Ruby, etc.... developer handling the server scripting. Very rarely does a .Net developer take the time to learn Python because there is just too much to learn in the .Net world. It's created more jobs as skills have become more specialized. I used to know them all, now I only know a tiny portion. Yet my skills are sought out just as a Python developers skills are sought out, or a Java developers are. This is why there are now 4 jobs for every one of us.
Progress isn't learning basic technological skills in order to function, progress is changing the idea of what "function" means or what it is at its essence. It is not something we fuel with employable people from here on out, it is a process that continually puts more people out of work as it moves forward and upward. The jobs are becoming more specialized, and as the machines improve, less specialized workers are needed, and so it goes, and so it goes...
We don't defeat anything by taxing big business, we do it as a means to try and hang on to increasingly automated big business' coattails and continue to live somewhat well as technological innovation carries forward leaving the vastly lesser skilled workers (a huge majority, by the way) with no means of income. We cannot make every person alive into ever-increasingly advanced computer programmers, or software engineers, or this, or that, etc, so what are we to do - let everyone fend for themselves in an ever-advancing digital age? I think you know how that would go.
What we defeat is our ability to sustain employment with a tax rate that high. It is essentially an admission that we will eventually be doomed so let's just try and create as much havoc as possible on the way out. No, not everyone needs to be a computer programmer. We computer programmers though, will need sustenance, entertainment, a vacation once in a while, somewhere to live, you know, we need to survive and enjoy life too. So hopefully we will still have someone to make me a tasty sandwich for lunch. Or I can just make one in the 3d-printer!
That said, progress itself isn't an entity that is defeating us, it's transitioning us into a new kind of existence beyond what we'd traditionally come to know as "the norm". That transition is going to hurt for a while until we get to the other side, and until full automation becomes 'the new norm'. Maybe trying to cushion the blow of mass unemployment in the less technological sectors by building out a large social safety net isn't the answer - that may be true - but it's still better than resting on the tattered support systems we currently have on hand and thinking that they will sustain us as we move to 50% unemployment and beyond.
How about we just change our support systems to be more efficient as well, just like the rest of the economy is doing? Of course, we could just throw more money at failed policies, drain those they would create more efficient systems of any chance of growth, and go down down down into a burning ring of fire. That's what I like to call a slow death. You know, I'd prefer to be shot in the head like one of those zombies in the shows I like to watch than bleed out.