Russia may have made some initial attempts, but from what I've heard, the real thing is coming soon. Simplicius, a substacker with extensive knowledge of the situation in Ukraine, had this to say today in regards to Odessa:
We should remind ourselves what got us here.
Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.
I think it'd be more accurate to say that he started a military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The reason I think that's more accurate is because Putin has always stated that his decision to start this operation had nothing to do with conquest, which is what invasions are generally about, and everything to do with protecting Russia's interests. Furthermore, he only started his military operation almost a week -after- Ukraine had begun its assault on the Donbass Republics. I suspect you already know this, so I'll just include a link to an article that explains all of this from former Swiss Intelligence Officer Jacques Baud:
Jacques Baud, a NATO expert, denounces western coverage of the Ukraine invasion.
scheerpost.com
Before the Ukrainians put up a defense, the Russian Army was already on the other side of the Dnieper River, had captured Kherson, and was most of the way towards Odesa. The Russians Navy was attacking Odesa by sea, and had captured Snake Island just off the coast of Odesa.
It seemed pretty hopeless.
Then the Ukrainians started fighting back. They drove the Russian Army back across the Dnieper River, liberating Kherson. This was an amazing feat, because crossing a river while fighting is tough. It turns out that NATO tech and strategies for crossing a rive in combat works very well. When the Ukrainians ran into the mines on the left side of the river, everything started falling apart. NATO tech and strategies do not work well against the combination of mines, drones, and artillery. And of course, Ukraine devastated the Russian Navy, so now rather than attack Odesa, they cower at the far end of the Black Sea.
When Russians do press back against the Ukrainians and capture the Ukrainians beachheads on the left side of the Dnieper River, they are unable to cross the defended Dnieper. While NATO can cross rivers like they are barely there, Russians simply cannot.
And the Russians need to cross the Dnieper to get to Odesa.
Yes, they do. I already quoted Simplicius extensively in the post you're responding to with a Ukrainian General explaining how the Russians plan to do it. Naturally, the Ukrainian General thinks they may not succeed, but he also left open the possibility that they might. Keep in mind that this all comes from a Ukrainian news organization. I'll quote direct from the source and link to it below. Keep in mind that the original source is in Ukrainian, so you'll need a browser like chrome to translate it to English:
**
The Russians do not intend to end military operations in Ukraine until they have achieved their goals. Among them is the occupation of at least four major cities – Zaporizhia, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa. This was stated by Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Prozapas.
It was noted that the strategic goal of the rashists is to connect the captured Crimean corridor with Transnistria.
"The Russians are preparing bridgeheads for an offensive, including in Zaporizhia. This must be clearly understood. Zaporizhia is one of the strategic cities for them, although, of course, not as much of a priority as the Odessa direction. Because their main strategic task is to connect the occupied Crimean corridor with Transnistria, capturing Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa," Prozapas said on the air of the Espresso TV channel.
It is stated that Zaporozhye is needed as an outpost, having captured which it will be possible to advance to the south, conveniently forcing the Dnieper. However, this does not mean that the enemy will be able to realize their intentions. According to the analyst, one must be prepared for the worst and not expect a miracle. And then the invaders will not be able to achieve the desired result.
[snip]
It was emphasized that the Russians are preparing offensive operations.
"We must prepare for the worst, then we will not be disappointed," the military expert explained.
**
Full article:
Россияне не намерены завершать боевые действия в Украине до достижения поставленных целей. Среди них оккупация как минимум четырех крупных городов – Запорожья, Херсона, Николаева и Одессы. Об этом заявил майор ВСУ Валерий Прозапас. Отмечено, что стр
today.ua
Putin is demanding the "four Donbas Provinces", which would include areas on the right side of the Dnieper, to give Ukraine a 30 day truce. That would put the Russian Army across the Dnieper, and much of the way towards Odesa at the end of the 30 day truce. It seems Putin's only hope for victory.
I haven't seen Putin demand the four Donbass Provinces in exchange for a truce. I -suspect- that you are mistaken, and that Putin said that this could be part of a -permanent- peace. Regardless, I think we can agree that Ukraine wouldn't give them up for such a paltry reward as a 30 day truce. At this point, I don't even see Ukraine giving them up for a permanent peace. Which means that we'll probably find out if Russia is able to take them by force in the coming months or not.
