Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
My prediction is that Russia will tire first of losing young men and material in Putin's war of aggression.
Ukraine will finally get u.s. aid
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My prediction is that Russia will tire first of losing young men and material in Putin's war of aggression.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
She's been here longer than you to see most of your 26,500+ posts. That's plenty of time to know shit about you. She may no know which hand you wipe your ass with or the color of your trailer home, but she can certainly deduce your perceptions of humanity, your politics and your general demeanor as can anyone else who pays attention to your posts.
It works both ways, of course.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
My prediction is both sides will run out of money, manpower, and resources and agree to a ceasefire or peace agreement. Ukraine is taking heavy losses too, the Western media just doesn't report it. Neither side in that war is particularly competent at fighting a war.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Then how do you know about the losses on both sides?
I'm reminded of the Zen tale linked below. The Ukrainians will fight because it's for their homeland. Consider why the Russians lost in Afghanistan and why the US failed in both Afghanistan and Vietnam.
https://www.randallcraig.com/the-hare-and-the-fox/
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Google "Ukraine taking heavy loses"
The stories are there, they're just buried deep in various news outlet's articles. Ukraine has lost somewhere north of half-a-million troops so far. Of course, so has Russia. Both sides are taking heavy material losses, and are calling up older men, young boys, and the like. Neither side is particularly competent, and giving Ukraine Western equipment doesn't mean they have an advantage when it's manned by mediocre crews. Same goes for Russia.
The Russian Black Seas fleet is taking a beating because the Russian navy has never been particularly competent. In fact, given its history, the Russian navy is one of the most consistently incompetent navies on the planet.
Before WW 1:
In WW 2, the Soviet Red Navy lost more submarines than they sank ships. A singularly astoundingly horrible record.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Hence my point about defenders and aggressors.
The Russian Navy is being beat by ski boats. LOL
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Watch the video I posted. That Russian fleet lost a battle to unarmed British fishing trawlers...
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
I added it to my que and read about the Battle of Tsushima here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima
Looking at the current state of the Russian Army, it appears they've sunk back to their 1905 days.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
No, it's the same as it was throughout the 20th Century. The problem for Russia is they continue to rely on conscription for their troops and have a relatively corrupt officer corps. There is also a gulf socially between officers and enlisted that creates a further issue. Virtually all conscripts serve their two years and leave service. That means they only get to a very minimal level of training and experience before getting out. The turnover ensures that few units have any core of skilled veterans within them. Instead, you have a mass of disinterested enlisted with minimal skills and training, and officers who really, for the most part, don't give a shit about it other than making sure their resume is up to date for a promotion. Officers will 'pencil whip' reports and other data to ensure on paper their command meets requirements. They don't care if it actually can fight, just that on paper the bureaucracy is satisfied so they get promoted.
Ukraine really isn't any different. Having been part of the Soviet Union for so long, their military has the same sort of internal structure. There isn't the sort of long-service veterans in either military you find in the West. There is no corps of NCOs with long-term experience and officers that have some social connection to their troops in either the Ukranian or Russia military.
Russia has the best military in the world....you live in an alt universe.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Well, at least they make the best targets for the Ukrainians.
The problem with the Russian Army is that Putin and his oligarchs have been gutting it to line their own pockets for the past couple decades. It's impossible to just shit an army in a few weeks. At least not an effective, experienced and well-trained army. Most Russian soldiers are cannon fodder and they know it.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Russia has never had "the best military in the world." They've always been a paper tiger that wins on quantity and nothing else.
Ukraine is the biggest land war since WW2...and they kicked our asses...You have no idea what you are talking about.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
You have no idea what you're talking about. American politicians have no idea what they're doing in Ukraine. Russia couldn't fight a war against a 'real,' professional, military to save their lives. Russia's method of warfare is brute force, in mass, with no holds barred. Their only way to win is to outlast and grind their opponent down in blood and obstinate willpower.
That's really nothing new to warfare, but the West today has little stomach for it. That's the biggest drawback to war the West faces.
For most of my life, up until two years ago, I would have disagreed with you. But if Russia is having this much trouble taking Ukraine, that either means Ukraine is much stronger than we thought, or Russia is much weaker than we thought... Actually, it probably means both.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, a much clearer picture of the Red Army in WW 2 has emerged. See for example, the books written by David M. Glantz. These use documents from Russian archives that were previously inaccessible. These paint a solid picture that the Red Army was, as the title of Glantz's books suggests, a "stumbling colossus." As an indicator of things post WW 2, no nation using Soviet tanks, training, and tactics, has beaten an army using Western armor, training, and tactics to date. In Ukraine we're seeing the same thing, and unless the Ukrainians suddenly stop using what amounts to Russian training and tactics with Western armor they're being given, this pattern will continue to hold true.
I agree basically, but I question how many clear proxy wars there were with similar levels of technology. Vietnam was our modern tech, against their simple tech, using strategies that the USSR did not support. There were actual tank battles in the Korean War, but again, not exactly the same. Maybe the Israeli-Arab Wars are a good comparison, or maybe not.
Ukraine might be the first war of its kind.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
There were some tank battles in Vietnam, not many but some. The largest involved ARVN forces after the US withdrew when N Vietnam tried the first time to invade the South. ARVN M48's shot the living shit out of NVA T-55's on Highway 1. The NVA crews didn't even know what the hell was blowing their asses up.
India v. Pakistan, same thing. Western armor won.
In Korea it was totally a one-sided shooting gallery most of the time in tank v tank actions for the UN forces.
The Arab-Israeli wars are yet another. Hell, the Israeli upgraded M51 Isersherman tank in 1967 and 1973 proved capable of taking on and defeating Soviet made T 55 and T 62 tanks with Soviet trained crews in them.
The last of those left Chilean active duty in the early 2000's...
That is, an upgraded WW 2 Sherman tank with a Western-style trained crew, could beat Soviet armor made in the 1950's to 1970's...