Hello Dutch Uncle,
As of April 16th, there have been over 31,000 US deaths from COVID-19. The first documented US death was on February 29th. With social distancing and other measures, the curve of illnesses is flattening, but deaths will continue.
The poll question is simple: if the nation continues to keep shut down without a vaccine, a cure or access to speedy, cheap testing, will there be more than the high end of projected US flu deaths (62,000) or less by the November election?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Does the poll have a time limit?
You know I like mathematics.
Obviously, the longer one waits to vote, the more informed their choice is.
I'm inclined to say yes, the number will go higher than 62K by election day.
It's already at 33,490 on worldometer, and 31,590 on Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering website.
Worldometer says there are also 13K in serious / critical condition. I understand that most people who go on a ventilator pretty much end up dying. That would easily place the death toll over 40K, and we are still adding new cases every day. Yesterday, we added over 30K new cases.
If it doesn't go over 62K, it will certainly get very close.
And what if DT calls off the shut-down?
Then all bets are off?
Also, there is confusion as to what the Poll question actually is.
The stated Poll Question is not the same as the longer question posted in the OP, which carries additional conditions.
Personally, I think DT is going to mimmick what has happened in China.
At first, they denied it even existed, punished those who tried to warn everyone. DT's got that box checked.
Then they had to admit it and took strong measures. Check, again.
And lately, they have opened back up, and are seeing their numbers go back up in a 'Second Wave.' Will DT check that box, too?
I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't. He's been dancing all around it. Looks like he is about to.
And here comes the strongman approach with that.
You know what he is going to do.
He lacks the authority to order States to open for business, but he'll do it anyway, and if they fail to comply he will apply all kinds of unrelated pressure by withholding other things that have nothing to do with it. He is relentless in his over-reach of power.
I bet he 'opens the country up' too soon, and we get the second wave, which will surely put the figure over the 62K estimate if it didn't go there anyway.
That's my vote.