Why Hillary's Candidacy is Weaker than People Think...

C

Cypress

Well-known member
....or, why Cypress is such a sharp, and astute political observer*


(* Just kidding!)


The MSM gave us the spin for the last 12 months that a Hillary nomination was inevitable. That she would bury any opponents in a mountain of cash.


Not so fast:

1) Obama just tied Hillary for fundraising, pulling in an astonishing 25 million dollars. Edwards did quite well too. Hillary is in for suprise.

2) Obama had more donors just online, that hillary had in TOTAL. aka, hillary has no grass roots support.

3) Edwards consistently has polled well against hillary in Iowa. He's spent three years building networks in the first primary states. That's where polls mater - the national polls - showing hillary way ahead - don't mean anything. If Edwards wins Iowa, New Hamshire, and South Carolina (duh - he's a native son) - Edwards wins.
 
Cypress said:
....or, why Cypress is such a sharp, and astute political observer*


(* Just kidding!)


The MSM gave us the spin for the last 12 months that a Hillary nomination was inevitable. That she would bury any opponents in a mountain of cash.


Not so fast:

1) Obama just tied Hillary for fundraising, pulling in an astonishing 25 million dollars. Edwards did quite well too. Hillary is in for suprise.

2) Obama had more donors just online, that hillary had in TOTAL. aka, hillary has no grass roots support.

3) Edwards consistently has polled well against hillary in Iowa. He's spent three years building networks in the first primary states. That's where polls mater - the national polls - showing hillary way ahead - don't mean anything. If Edwards wins Iowa, New Hamshire, and South Carolina (duh - he's a native son) - Edwards wins.
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I am waiting to see how the Clinton campaign reacts if Edwards is still polling ahead in those early primary states, in the weeks before they take place. She might go negative, but I don't see what you can hit Edwards on that's going to tarnish him to any large degree.
 
Not that my perspective or circle of friends represents "the left", but from what I've seen I don't think she'll turn that support into enough votes to win the nomination. I think we're kind of all in a wait and see mode but if it were held tomorrow, I really don't think she'd win the nomination.
 
Darla said:
I am waiting to see how the Clinton campaign reacts if Edwards is still polling ahead in those early primary states, in the weeks before they take place. She might go negative, but I don't see what you can hit Edwards on that's going to tarnish him to any large degree.
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I don't think Edwards will win either or even be able to campaign or govern appropiately. His wife has terminal cancer and he has two young kids. She will be very sick throughout the term (at best) and who's going to be watching the children. That really doesn't sit right with me. I don't think its hte right time for him plus, I'm not sure there is any stance he's taken that I've been substiantially & uniquely impressed with since his first run.
 
LadyT said:
I don't think Edwards will win either or even be able to campaign or govern appropiately. His wife has terminal cancer and he has two young kids. She will be very sick throughout the term (at best) and who's going to be watching the children. That really doesn't sit right with me. I don't think its hte right time for him plus, I'm not sure there is any stance he's taken that I've been substiantially & uniquely impressed with since his first run.
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Really? Wow, I love Edwards. He is where my heart is at regarding health care and poverty issues.

Elizabeth could live 20 years, from what I understand. I mean, yes it will kill her (well, something else could first), but it could be managable. The medicine may work, she may go into remission or something like it, for years. Or she might be dead four years from now. But I just look at it this way; the same could be said of anybody.
 
I like the attitude of Elizabeth, she is not going to let it kill her before it truely does. Keep living your life untill you die, thats what I say. In fact, if you get terminal cancer, thats more reason to do what you WANT.
 
Darla said:
Really? Wow, I love Edwards. He is where my heart is at regarding health care and poverty issues.

Elizabeth could live 20 years, from what I understand. I mean, yes it will kill her (well, something else could first), but it could be managable. The medicine may work, she may go into remission or something like it, for years. Or she might be dead four years from now. But I just look at it this way; the same could be said of anybody.
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As one who is a cancer survivor, I can say that life can not stop, they have made the decision to go on together...I think it was very brave and a great sacrifice to their country.

I think they both feel so strongly about the mess that America is in, that is worth it to both of them what the family must go through...
 
Jarod said:
I like the attitude of Elizabeth, she is not going to let it kill her before it truely does. Keep living your life untill you die, thats what I say. In fact, if you get terminal cancer, thats more reason to do what you WANT.
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I feel the same way. I have always had this soft spot for Elizabeth Edwards. But now, I really admire her. What a first lady she would be, in my opinion.
 
froggie said:
As one who is a cancer survivor, I can say that life can not stop, they have made the decision to go on together...I think it was very brave and a great sacrifice to their country.

I think they both feel so strongly about the mess that America is in, that is worth it to both of them what the family must go through...
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They seem to both feel that way, and there is no doubt that this woman believes there is greatness in her husband. What if she is right?
 
I voted for Edwards in the Primaries last time, and Ive seen nuthing that would change my vote yet.

I have to learn more about Obama, but unless I think Obama is GREAT, Edwards has my vote thus far.
 
Clark! Clark! Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!

(we all like him... get the grassroots effort going...get the man to run... then NOMINATE him...put Richardson as his VP... all is right in the world... we finally have someone that we can actually respect to vote for) :D
 
Superfreak said:
Clark! Clark! Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!

(we all like him... get the grassroots effort going...get the man to run... then NOMINATE him...put Richardson as his VP... all is right in the world... we finally have someone that we can actually respect to vote for) :D
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I like Clark, but I think he is as unelectable as Senator Clinton. He has 0 experience governing and he is a poor public speaker. I know he is good friends with Senator Clinton and dont belive he will run unless she drops out. I do bet he would be her VP unless she decideds she has to choose Obama.
 
Superfreak said:
Clark! Clark! Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!

(we all like him... get the grassroots effort going...get the man to run... then NOMINATE him...put Richardson as his VP... all is right in the world... we finally have someone that we can actually respect to vote for) :D
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The base of the Democratic party, more liberal than general democrats as you know, don't tend to nominate military men. They have this idea that they're authoritarian personalities. I've thought long and hard about why they think this, and came to the conclusion it's for the same reason people think midgets are short.

But Richardson, I would not be shocked if he ends up on the ticket.
 
Jarod said:
I voted for Edwards in the Primaries last time, and Ive seen nuthing that would change my vote yet.

I have to learn more about Obama, but unless I think Obama is GREAT, Edwards has my vote thus far.
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We're on the exact same page then.
 
I certainly feel bad for the Edwards family as it is obviously tough to go through. But the cancer aside, I see little that I like about Edwards. I think he is a slick trial lawyer that is going to blow smoke up our ass just to attempt to get elected. I don't think he has a viable plan on any of the major issues. (now I am more anti-big gov and fiscally conservative, so that is probably why I don't like many of his "ideas:)
 
Superfreak said:
I certainly feel bad for the Edwards family as it is obviously tough to go through. But the cancer aside, I see little that I like about Edwards. I think he is a slick trial lawyer that is going to blow smoke up our ass just to attempt to get elected. I don't think he has a viable plan on any of the major issues. (now I am more anti-big gov and fiscally conservative, so that is probably why I don't like many of his "ideas:)
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Has anyone actually ever had smoke blown up their ass? I can't imagine it's a pleasant experience, and I know it always gives me a very weird visual.

No, of course, I understand that, and I wouldn't expect you to like Edwards for that reason.
 
The fact that he is a lawyer is an advantage in my opinion. I cringe everytime I hear Bush talk about the Constitution, his ignorance of the document and its signifigance is unforgivable in a president.
 
Superfreak said:
Clark! Clark! Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!Clark! Clark!

(we all like him... get the grassroots effort going...get the man to run... then NOMINATE him...put Richardson as his VP... all is right in the world... we finally have someone that we can actually respect to vote for) :D
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Clark's not running, and I don't think he is going to run.
 
Who's to know though. The Dean machine looked strong from the start with its grass roots support but then it fell apart. I primary mechanism I think will help Hillary in the same way it helped Kerry beat Dean.
 
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