Quick Logic Problem

KingCondanomation said:
Oh and it's duly noted that the Liberals on here (Dung, Onceler, Darla) stayed out of trying to make any guesses, wonder why that would be? :rolleyes:
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And it is also duly noted that you haven't answered my question....

It has to be half. You stated that abour 1/3 would say they had two boys. That means that 2/3 would have to have a boy and a girl by your logic? Right? There are no other options left.
 
KingCondanomation said:
It's more than a survey and she is not quizzing people on their knowledge which of course is far more fallible.
Read the link and view the table, you will see.
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Again, it is wrong.

No matter about this survey or not, it is simply wrong.

The birth order doesn't matter and would not change the probability of it being a boy or a girl in any matter.

The chart is a distraction, like the "missing dollar" scenario. You are being misled into bad math and logic. There is only one variable, the sex of one child for each of the parents. Birth order doesn't change that it is only one variable with two possible results.
 
KingCondanomation said:
Right.
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LMAO... that makes NO sense. This is the same nonsense that she had with the Monty Hall answer.

Three doors... you choose number one. Monty opens number three and shows a hoax prize... do you change your option to door number two?

She said yes, because that was a 2/3 probability of being correct. She uses false logic to come up with that moronic answer. Which just goes to show that those IQ tests are bogus. People like you bought that line of crap and now buy this one.

Side note... show us the questions asked in her survey.
 
Superfreak said:
And it is also duly noted that you haven't answered my question....

It has to be half. You stated that abour 1/3 would say they had two boys. That means that 2/3 would have to have a boy and a girl by your logic? Right? There are no other options left.
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???
About 1/3 DID have 2 boys
So yes 2/3 DID have a boy and a girl

Where does the half come into play?
 
KingCondanomation said:
???
About 1/3 DID have 2 boys
So yes 2/3 DID have a boy and a girl

Where does the half come into play?
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It doesn't matter, it would not have changed the PROBABILITY of what the sex of the second child would be even if this sampling had 2/3 with a boy-girl mix. (Well, yeah it would, then it really would be 1/3 for both of them)...

You read his post wrong. 2/3 of them had to have one child that was both a boy and a girl using the logic chart. This boy-girl child would then alter the probabilities since it was not one of the possible variable solutions.

Anyway, the way to figure probability is not with surveys.
 
Superfreak said:
LMAO... that makes NO sense. This is the same nonsense that she had with the Monty Hall answer.

Three doors... you choose number one. Monty opens number three and shows a hoax prize... do you change your option to door number two?

She said yes, because that was a 2/3 probability of being correct. She uses false logic to come up with that moronic answer. Which just goes to show that those IQ tests are bogus. People like you bought that line of crap and now buy this one.

Side note... show us the questions asked in her survey.
Click to expand...

Super, it's right there.
"Finally vos Savant started a survey, calling on women readers with exactly two children and at least one boy to tell her the sex of both children. With almost eighteen thousand responses, the results showed 35.9% (a little over 1 in 3) with two boys."

And remember this is 18,000 people, political surveys are fairly close to correct with under a 1000 people answering.

The survey is not really the point here anyway, the logic is sound, it was just used to convince those who were still sceptical.
 
what's the answer?

have male or female 50%
have 2 males
25% chance


both women have 2 males?
25%*25%
6.25%
right?
or is stirfry's quick math wrong. Most likely. LOL

odds that either woman will have 2 boys
25%*2
50%chance
 
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Damocles said:
Again, it is wrong.

No matter about this survey or not, it is simply wrong.

The birth order doesn't matter and would not change the probability of it being a boy or a girl in any matter.

The chart is a distraction, like the "missing dollar" scenario. You are being misled into bad math and logic. There is only one variable, the sex of one child for each of the parents. Birth order doesn't change that it is only one variable with two possible results.
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I'll say what I said to Super.
This is a survey with 18,000 people, political surveys are fairly close to correct with under a 1000 people answering. What are the odds that a survey with that massive amount of people answering would be wrong?

The logic stands on it's own, the survey just validates it in the real world for those sceptical.
 
KingCondanomation said:
I'll say what I said to Super.
This is a survey with 18,000 people, political surveys are fairly close to correct with under a 1000 people answering. What are the odds that a survey with that massive amount of people answering would be wrong?

The logic stands on it's own, the survey just validates it in the real world for those sceptical.
Click to expand...

a survey of that many people could be as WRONG as the lesser number of people survey....it is a survey!
 
KingCondanomation said:
I'll say what I said to Super.
This is a survey with 18,000 people, political surveys are fairly close to correct with under a 1000 people answering. What are the odds that a survey with that massive amount of people answering would be wrong?

The logic stands on it's own, the survey just validates it in the real world for those sceptical.
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No, the survey misleads people into believing that the laws of probability are altered by birth order.

It's rubbish. One does not take a survey to do the math.
 
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