recession fear mongers: Economy best in four years

Topspin said:
oncelor, you may not have used the word prediction but you certainly called for a shitty economy which has yet to materialize.
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Well, if I say it for a long enough period, it will come true. At some point there will be another recession, just as at another point there will be another surge. If one says constantly that a recession is "just over the horizon", but gives no solid timeline they will always be correct.
 
uscitizen said:
In terms of lowering our standard of living ?
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yes standard of living would go down. but then thats going to happen inevitably anyhow with globilization.. top guys come down bottom guys come up..

also this is the platform of the democrats within our own country.. re distribution of wealth.
 
Topspin said:
right you and most posters have been wrong oncelor
4% in the third qtr is really good, Just like two january's ago 5.6% I said was really good and you and ck we're saying mid year that wasn't true.
If you want to argue the economy's bad, it's good to have a freaking clue what GDP growth is and has been.
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I'm not arguing "the economy is bad." I'm arguing "the economy will be bad." I'm not the only one.

You're an economic buffoon if you can't see the signs of that.
 
Damocles said:
Well, if I say it for a long enough period, it will come true. At some point there will be another recession, just as at another point there will be another surge. If one says constantly that a recession is "just over the horizon", but gives no solid timeline they will always be correct.
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My critiques have always been geared toward the fact that right now, we have no fiscal policy whatsoever. Whatever good the economy has shown over the past 5-6 years have more to do with an overinflated housing market than anything, and now that is falling apart. If you read anything from anyone even remotely involved in the economy, this is not a good thing, and the failure of leadership on the economy is going to likely have very strong reprucussions for the average American.

Sure, the economy is cyclic, but we have some real fundamental problems right now. Again, the economy has been propped up by overinflated home values, and consumer spending based on over-extended debt that is tied into those home values. It really doesn't take a genius to realize that when those home values falter, as they are now, bad things will happen.
 
I'm glad your finally retracting the bad economy joke.
Now your like USC you just say it's going to be bad without saying when and like dano said every seven years you'll be right.
By my newbee count you and usc have been saying it for two years.
P.S. I'm up about $300,000 over that period in net worth.
 
if you look at the artical you will notice the housing crash only took 1% off the numbers. its only one sector (a good sized one) but not necessarily enough alone to crash our entire economy.
 
i think 08 will be turbulent as it has been.. up and down... but 09 will be a break out year.. remember.. buy low sell high.
 
Chapdog said:
if you look at the artical you will notice the housing crash only took 1% off the numbers. its only one sector (a good sized one) but not necessarily enough alone to crash our entire economy.
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That assumes that:

A) the crash has ended, and ended in July
B) the ramifications of the crash are felt immediately, and not over the course of the upcoming months

Are you guys that blind?

Re-read your own article...
 
Onceler said:
My critiques have always been geared toward the fact that right now, we have no fiscal policy whatsoever. Whatever good the economy has shown over the past 5-6 years have more to do with an overinflated housing market than anything, and now that is falling apart. If you read anything from anyone even remotely involved in the economy, this is not a good thing, and the failure of leadership on the economy is going to likely have very strong reprucussions for the average American.

Sure, the economy is cyclic, but we have some real fundamental problems right now. Again, the economy has been propped up by overinflated home values, and consumer spending based on over-extended debt that is tied into those home values. It really doesn't take a genius to realize that when those home values falter, as they are now, bad things will happen.
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exactly. The Fed needs to step up and drop rates to curb this housing downturn. Otherwise consumer spending will dry up as foreclosures escalate. My guess is they drop at least 50bps on the 11th and another 100 bps by the end of the March meeting. IF we can combine that with some type of mortgage restructuring, whether it is the introduction of a 50 year fixed rate or lenders biting the bullet and issuing 30 year fixed rates to those in trouble, then we can avoid the bulk of the recessionary pressures and turn our focus back to inflation.
 
i never said it ended.. so far id say that Q4 is the worst for housing yet.. and it wont be more of a negative effect of about 1.5% for Q4.
 
Onceler said:
That assumes that:

A) the crash has ended, and ended in July
B) the ramifications of the crash are felt immediately, and not over the course of the upcoming months

Are you guys that blind?

Re-read your own article...
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Again, correct. If this continues to get worse, which if nothing is done it will, then eventually consumer spending decreases as credit will continue to tighten further.
 
Chapdog said:
i never said it ended.. so far id say that Q4 is the worst for housing yet.. and it wont be more of a negative effect of about 1.5% for Q4.
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I would agree that this quarter will be worse than last. The problem lies in the fact that it is progessively getting worse. There has been little done to stop the decline.
 
nobody is denying this has potential to take us into recession.. but there are options to curb it.. lowering rates so that credit companies loosen restrictions and offer fixed bail out options. forcing mortgage companies to offer 30 or 50year loans.. etc.

what im saying is its not like nothing can be done to stop it.
 
and from a forecast point of view.. nobody is forecasting a negative GDP quarter in 08 as of this moment.
 
Onceler said:
I'm not arguing "the economy is bad." I'm arguing "the economy will be bad." I'm not the only one.

You're an economic buffoon if you can't see the signs of that.
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The "experts" I have seen and read about are predicting about 2% growth for next year.

And I am not talking about CPA's predictions either.

and many are saying at least a 1/3 chance of a recession. Big change form what they were saying a few months ago. I have to wonder what they will be saying in February....
 
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I'd love to see a recession avoided. To me, this is a non-partisan issue. If there is a recession next year, I think it hurts Dems as much as the GOP; that's the nature of split gov't.

That said, I'm just concerned. I think the circumstances we have seen are unprecedented. People are at a record level of debt, and we have had an economy that has basically survived based on consumer spending. It's no coincidence. People are borrowing massive amounts against their homes, and putting record amounts against their credit cards, and at some point, this has to come home to roost. It is unsustainable.

We're already seeing foreclosures increase at very high levels. We're seeing drops in consumer confidence to levels we haven't seen in years. Home sales are way down, values are decreasing, spending is drying up. The signs are not good.
 
Superfreak said:
I would agree that this quarter will be worse than last. The problem lies in the fact that it is progessively getting worse. There has been little done to stop the decline.
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Dropping the rates will be problematic towards inflation, the fix needs to be applied quickly so that we can refocus on inflation.
 
LOL usmoron 2% is far from a recession
The fed will cut rates several times, it's already priced in the futures.
they will put inflation on the back burner till they fix housing, New sales were actually up Oct vs Sept but still low and inventories went down. One month does not make a trend but at least it crept up
 
IT'S not bad usmoron considering whats going on
but shit your ged would even have you understanding bookeeping much less economics.
 
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