538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

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Earl

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538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election


This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.

Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations. 538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win." As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp
 
Charlie Kirk
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BREAKING: Donald Trump has pulled ahead in 538's forecast of the presidential election.

This is the first time he has EVER led a 538 forecast, in any of his three races.
 
Earl said:
538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election


This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.

Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations. 538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win." As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp
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Admittedly, not that it matters...TRUMP WILL NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE...JUST AS HE HAS NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THE PAST.

But there are enough MAGA morons to allow him to win. So our Republic may still be lost.
 
Ross Dolan said:
Admittedly, not that it matters...TRUMP WILL NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE...JUST AS HE HAS NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THE PAST.

But there are enough MAGA morons to allow him to win. So our Republic may still be lost.
Click to expand...
That Depends frankie. We do not elect a president based on the popular vote. The founding fathers were very wise. Sorry, they shit in your Wheaties.
 
Ross Dolan said:
Admittedly, not that it matters...TRUMP WILL NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE...JUST AS HE HAS NEVER LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THE PAST.

But there are enough MAGA morons to allow him to win. So our Republic may still be lost.
Click to expand...
Just like very president in history has won the electoral college.

But there are enough leftist morons who want to destroy this country and have set the wheels in motion.
 
Yakuda said:
Just like very president in history has won the electoral college.
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Trump won the Electoral College fair and square in the 2016 election...as I have said several times. The assholes of the MAGA right are not able to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the Electoral College fair and square in the 2020 election.

So, besides the one on the top of your head...what is your point?


Yakuda said:
But there are enough leftist morons who want to destroy this country and have set the wheels in motion.
Click to expand...

The MAGA morons are the ones doing the destruction, Yakuda.

You just are not able to see it. Your Fuhrer has instructed you to pretend it is not happening...and for sure, you must obey.
 
Ross Dolan said:
They may well have been. But one thing they were not...conservatives of that time.

My guess: They wouldn't piss on Trump or one of the MAGA morons if they saw one of them on fire.
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No they would throw water on them instead. They would piss on Biden if he was on fire though.
 
Ross Dolan said:
Trump won the Electoral College fair and square in the 2016 election...as I have said several times. The assholes of the MAGA right are not able to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the Electoral College fair and square in the 2020 election.

So, besides the one on the top of your head...what is your point?




The MAGA morons are the ones doing the destruction, Yakuda.

You just are not able to see it. Your Fuhrer has instructed you to pretend it is not happening...and for sure, you must obey.
Click to expand...
So stop whining Francis. Even when you little bitches win you can't hell but yap like retarded Chihuahuas
 
Earl said:
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp
Click to expand...
Other than the public polls, what other indicators are there that Donald Trump will win?

Because he's raised less money (and the money he has raised is going to his legal defense)...

He's opened 0 campaign offices while Biden has opened more than 100...

He didn't attend the GOP debates...

He lost about 25% of the primary vote to Nikki Haley after she dropped out...

The Democrats have been on an incredible 7-year electoral winning streak, including all the recent special elections in 2023 and 2024 that have exceeded polling expectations...

Trump is a convicted felon.

So I ask, other than the public polls, what makes you think Trump will win?
 
An Orange Cat said:
Other than the public polls, what other indicators are there that Donald Trump will win?

Because he's raised less money (and the money he has raised is going to his legal defense)...

He's opened 0 campaign offices while Biden has opened more than 100...

He didn't attend the GOP debates...

He lost about 25% of the primary vote to Nikki Haley after she dropped out...

The Democrats have been on an incredible 7-year electoral winning streak, including all the recent special elections in 2023 and 2024 that have exceeded polling expectations...

Trump is a convicted felon.

So I ask, other than the public polls, what makes you think Trump will win?
Click to expand...

Donald Trump Opens 31 Offices in Michigan​

​

:facepalm:​

 
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