How can cases double if the spread is slowed?
THREAD KILLER ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
How can cases double if the spread is slowed?
This is simple math. Let's take a look at an example using the Delta variant:
Vaccinated people are five times less likely to be infected with the Delta variant. This is a fact. If you don't accept it as fact, please skip posting here and pick up a book instead.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm
The R0 of Delta with no mitigation factors is somewhere around 5-7, let's go with five for this exercise:
https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/7/taab124/6346388
Okay, now lets start. 200 people are exposed to a person the Delta variant, 100 are vaccinated, 100 are unvaccinated. Given the delta and the efficacy of the vaccines:
7 unvaccinated people will get the variant
2 vaccinated people will get the variant (I'm erring on the side of caution, it's actually less than two)
If the group had been 100 percent vaccinated, 3 people would have gotten the virus, instead of nine. Each iteration increases the infection exponentially. This is simple math. Three is less than nine. Therefore vaccines slow the spread. If enough people are vaccinated, and additional mitigation is used, the R0 will quickly drop below 1.
Any questions? If you are having trouble understanding, see the teacher for assignment to the remedial window licker class.
This is simple math. Let's take a look at an example using the Delta variant:
Vaccinated people are five times less likely to be infected with the Delta variant. This is a fact. If you don't accept it as fact, please skip posting here and pick up a book instead.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm
The R0 of Delta with no mitigation factors is somewhere around 5-7, let's go with five for this exercise:
https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/7/taab124/6346388
Okay, now lets start. 200 people are exposed to a person the Delta variant, 100 are vaccinated, 100 are unvaccinated. Given the delta and the efficacy of the vaccines:
7 unvaccinated people will get the variant
2 vaccinated people will get the variant (I'm erring on the side of caution, it's actually less than two)
If the group had been 100 percent vaccinated, 3 people would have gotten the virus, instead of nine. Each iteration increases the infection exponentially. This is simple math. Three is less than nine. Therefore vaccines slow the spread. If enough people are vaccinated, and additional mitigation is used, the R0 will quickly drop below 1.
Any questions? If you are having trouble understanding, see the teacher for assignment to the remedial window licker class.
the VAX will help blunt this
Child COVID-19 hospitalizations up nearly 400 percent in New York City
From Dec. 11 to 23, the number of children in New York City hospitalized with COVID-19 rose by 395 percent, WABC-TV reported. The number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184.
Yup...the vax is doing a great job at blunting it!u people are some stupid fucking fools
If the vax was blunting it in ANY way the numbers would be DOWN..not up
rofl... and those "three people" infect others.
this isn't a numbers game and you cant stop the spread
so now goof balls like the author and fauci are saying "slow the spread"
of a wildly infectious virus designed by gain of function to be the most contagious virus around.
Put on a dozen masks, stay in your basement like Biden, and vax away.
It doesn't matter- those other "3 people" are still spreading
Uneducated hillbilly , everyone in NYC isn't vaxed especially young children, now go rotate the tires on your trailer house cletus
This is purely political for conservatives.
Lol I love it when people pull shit out of context.
Like you?
There is no vaccine for a political belief.You might say the same about any hardened political belief.
Now you are speaking of religion.Once a political leaning gets hardened into ideology it stays there, as many of our own differing left/right arguments continually illustrate.
No science here...move along...move along...The question is why should a medical science question reach this point?
Because he works for the government. If he wants to continue to work for the government, he must spew the government agenda.Why should Dr. Fauci of all people become something on the order of a dirty Leftist?
Was that a question troll?
Not one person refuted the math. I win again.
what is this moron claiming now?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/health/delta-variant-covid.html
Delta was first identified in the United States in March. It spread quickly. In early April, Delta represented just 0.1 percent of cases in the United States, according to the C.D.C. By early May, the variant accounted for 1.3 percent of cases, and by early June, that figure had jumped to 9.5 percent. The C.D.C. now estimates that the number has hit 82.2 percent.
Being an anti-vaxxer is not a matter of defending personal liberties.
It is anti-social behavior and willful aggression toward the community.
People not observing inoculation and masking protocols would be "disappeared" by an efficient government.
We obviously don't have one of those.