Agreed on the historical trend of Midterms costing the party of the WH occupant.
However, these are odd times and the Republicans have proved to be excellent at shooting themselves in the foot with "Ready, Fire, Aim!" bullshit lying about COVID, the Insurrection, Trump's anti-Constitutional (if not criminal) actions and anti-science/anti-vax agenda.
It's almost nine months since the Insurrection. Only the plea deals of non-violent offenders are coming out. The violent offenders are still holding out, under investigation or awaiting trial....and with 14,000 hours of video (Thanks Trump!

) the evidence is very damning.
Those fuckers are all going to go away. Whether it's for 20 years or 10 with a plea deal to testify against who gave the orders all remains to be seen.
Certainly all the rational, educated American adults on this forum can see this is not going to be good for the Insurrectionists or the Republican party next year or in November 2024.