Agreed on the specifics, but since Fox and the other MSM keep pushing how close the race is, that's the common belief.
The specifics are different. Notice the significant difference between the percentage of Independent voters in 2016 and in 2020. It shrunk, IIRC, from about 5% to less than 2%. Why?
I strongly dislike the idea of "lesser of two evils" and have voted Libertarian after 2012. I'm a strong believer that all Americans should vote. This goes back to our public education discussion since informed voters are better voters.
MAGAts will vote like MAGAts. LW Loonies will vote like LW Loonies. It's what the Independents think that will rule the day regardless how hard the Party of Trump seeks to steal it.