updates for events/culture /terrorism/nation building -all things related to Libya that aren't necessarily current events;
but are of interest/comments.
Thanks to staff for the accommodation!
++
East Libyan forces launch air strike against rivals in central desert
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKBN14F0QV
Forces loyal to Libya's eastern government said they had carried out an air strike against opponents in the central Jufra region on Monday.
Ahmed al-Mismari, a spokesman for the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA), said the strike had targeted a camp used by the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), a force that the LNA has previously clashed with.
The LNA and the BDB are on opposite sides of a conflict in which two loose and shifting alliances have battled for power in Libya since 2014, aligning themselves with rival governments in Tripoli and the east.
In recent months the LNA, led by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, has made military gains in Benghazi and Libya's Oil Crescent region, provoking several attempted counter-attacks by his rivals.
I am waiting for you and anybody else around here to reply to my thread "Free officer Derik Chauvin."
Libya News and Interests
- Thread starter anatta
- Start date
UAE official tells Turkey to stop meddling in Arab affairs over Libya
ReutersAugust 1, 2020, 4:31 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs said on Saturday that Turkey should stop interfering in Arab affairs, criticising comments on Libya made by Turkey's defence minister.
Turkish media had reported the Turkish minister making remarks critical of the UAE's actions over Libya.
The UAE, alongside Egypt and Russia, backs eastern Libya commander Khalifa Haftar, whose fighters have been battling the forces of the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. Turkey has stepped up support for the Tripoli government.
"Relations are not managed by threats and there is no place for colonialist delusions in this day and age
ReutersAugust 1, 2020, 4:31 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs said on Saturday that Turkey should stop interfering in Arab affairs, criticising comments on Libya made by Turkey's defence minister.
Turkish media had reported the Turkish minister making remarks critical of the UAE's actions over Libya.
The UAE, alongside Egypt and Russia, backs eastern Libya commander Khalifa Haftar, whose fighters have been battling the forces of the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. Turkey has stepped up support for the Tripoli government.
"Relations are not managed by threats and there is no place for colonialist delusions in this day and age
Libya is turning into a battle lab for air warfare
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nat...is-turning-into-a-battle-lab-for-air-warfare/
During Libya’s proxy war this year, the skies over the North African country have filled with Turkish and Chinese drones, Russian MiG 29s and Sukhoi 24s and Emirati Mirage 2000s — reportedly — with Turkish F-16s and Egyptian Rafales waiting in the wings.
Russian air defense systems have taken down drones while fighters, civilians and air bases have been bombed by jets as C-130s and Turkish A400M aircraft keep up deliveries of new weaponry and fighters into the country.
In short, Libya has been transformed this year into something of an air warfare laboratory, begging the question, what exactly is going on, who is winning and what has this conflict taught generals about modern air combat?
“On one level, Libya yet again simply underscores the value of air power – you do not want to get in a fight without it,” said Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
The conflict in lawless Libya began to escalate in April 2019 as local strongman General Khalifa Haftar launched his campaign to take the capital Tripoli. Backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France, he felt confident going up against the UN-recognized government in Tripoli backed by Turkey, Italy and Qatar.
In April last year, Chinese Wing Loon II drones operated by the UAE bombed civilian targets in the city, reflecting the recent, and rapid, procurement of Chinese drones around the Middle East.
“The Chinese have been adept at selling drones in the Middle East, including to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iraq. With the US previously constrained in selling systems, the Chinese saw a gap in the market,” said Barrie.
round May 2019, it introduced its own TB2 drone into the fray, attacking Haftar’s forces, knocking out Russian Pantsir air defense systems supporting him and helping end his ambitions to take Tripoli.
“Turkey has majored in UAV design and manufacture and likely used Libya in part as a test and adjust battle lab, and its systems are now ‘combat proven’. Its industry, like Roketsan, has also developed small, precision-guided munitions for UAVs,” Barrie said.
A second analyst said Turkey’s use of its TB2 in Libya had been a game changer. “Turkey decided it was okay to lose them from time to time, that they were semi-disposable, and that novel approach caught their enemy off guard,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the Clingendael Institute in Holland.
The reason? Cost. “They used to cost the Turks $1-1.5 million apiece to build, but thanks to economies of scale as production volumes rose, the cost has dropped to below $500,000, excluding the control station,” said Harchaoui.
He added that software and other technical changes had boosted the TB2′s efficiency and reconnaissance capabilities, which allowed them to find the right altitude to avoid the Russian Pantsir systems.
“The performance of the Wing Loon II’s in the hands of the UAE has meanwhile been largely static. They didn’t evolve, so they have been much less impressive,” he said.
Barrie said Libya was another example of the normalization of drone use in modern warfare.
“UAVs are a capability now pursued by state and non-state actors alike. Obviously states can afford more capable, larger systems, while non-state actors may have to make do with home-built systems akin to being made with Radio Shack-like components, or acquiring systems from state sponsors.”
He added,
The use of manned fighters in Libya has meanwhile been characterized by major powers sending them in on the quiet, with no announcement.
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nat...is-turning-into-a-battle-lab-for-air-warfare/
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nat...is-turning-into-a-battle-lab-for-air-warfare/
During Libya’s proxy war this year, the skies over the North African country have filled with Turkish and Chinese drones, Russian MiG 29s and Sukhoi 24s and Emirati Mirage 2000s — reportedly — with Turkish F-16s and Egyptian Rafales waiting in the wings.
Russian air defense systems have taken down drones while fighters, civilians and air bases have been bombed by jets as C-130s and Turkish A400M aircraft keep up deliveries of new weaponry and fighters into the country.
In short, Libya has been transformed this year into something of an air warfare laboratory, begging the question, what exactly is going on, who is winning and what has this conflict taught generals about modern air combat?
“On one level, Libya yet again simply underscores the value of air power – you do not want to get in a fight without it,” said Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
The conflict in lawless Libya began to escalate in April 2019 as local strongman General Khalifa Haftar launched his campaign to take the capital Tripoli. Backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France, he felt confident going up against the UN-recognized government in Tripoli backed by Turkey, Italy and Qatar.
In April last year, Chinese Wing Loon II drones operated by the UAE bombed civilian targets in the city, reflecting the recent, and rapid, procurement of Chinese drones around the Middle East.
“The Chinese have been adept at selling drones in the Middle East, including to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iraq. With the US previously constrained in selling systems, the Chinese saw a gap in the market,” said Barrie.
round May 2019, it introduced its own TB2 drone into the fray, attacking Haftar’s forces, knocking out Russian Pantsir air defense systems supporting him and helping end his ambitions to take Tripoli.
“Turkey has majored in UAV design and manufacture and likely used Libya in part as a test and adjust battle lab, and its systems are now ‘combat proven’. Its industry, like Roketsan, has also developed small, precision-guided munitions for UAVs,” Barrie said.
A second analyst said Turkey’s use of its TB2 in Libya had been a game changer. “Turkey decided it was okay to lose them from time to time, that they were semi-disposable, and that novel approach caught their enemy off guard,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the Clingendael Institute in Holland.
The reason? Cost. “They used to cost the Turks $1-1.5 million apiece to build, but thanks to economies of scale as production volumes rose, the cost has dropped to below $500,000, excluding the control station,” said Harchaoui.
He added that software and other technical changes had boosted the TB2′s efficiency and reconnaissance capabilities, which allowed them to find the right altitude to avoid the Russian Pantsir systems.
“The performance of the Wing Loon II’s in the hands of the UAE has meanwhile been largely static. They didn’t evolve, so they have been much less impressive,” he said.
Barrie said Libya was another example of the normalization of drone use in modern warfare.
“UAVs are a capability now pursued by state and non-state actors alike. Obviously states can afford more capable, larger systems, while non-state actors may have to make do with home-built systems akin to being made with Radio Shack-like components, or acquiring systems from state sponsors.”
He added,
The use of manned fighters in Libya has meanwhile been characterized by major powers sending them in on the quiet, with no announcement.
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nat...is-turning-into-a-battle-lab-for-air-warfare/
Turkey deploys its latest air defense system to Al-Watiya airbase in Libya
https://defence-blog.com/news/army/...nse-system-to-al-watiya-airbase-in-libya.html
Turkey has reportedly sent its latest self-propelled air-defense gun system, called the KORKUT, to Lybia.
The KORKUT is newly designed and developed for effective ground based air defense against modern air threats. The system consists of a platoon of three 35 mm Gun Systems and one Command Post that can operate full autonomously.
The Command and Control Vehicle detects and tracks targets with its 3D search radar and while developing a local air picture, evaluates threats and assigns targets to the Weapon System Vehicles. Meanwhile, the Weapon System Vehicles trace the target with fire control radar and generates firepower with two 35 mm guns using fragmentation ammunition.
https://defence-blog.com/news/army/...nse-system-to-al-watiya-airbase-in-libya.html
Turkey has reportedly sent its latest self-propelled air-defense gun system, called the KORKUT, to Lybia.
The KORKUT is newly designed and developed for effective ground based air defense against modern air threats. The system consists of a platoon of three 35 mm Gun Systems and one Command Post that can operate full autonomously.
The Command and Control Vehicle detects and tracks targets with its 3D search radar and while developing a local air picture, evaluates threats and assigns targets to the Weapon System Vehicles. Meanwhile, the Weapon System Vehicles trace the target with fire control radar and generates firepower with two 35 mm guns using fragmentation ammunition.
In Benghazi and Tripoli, I saw first-hand how civilians are suffering because of the catastrophic consequences of this conflict," "Neighbourhoods on the former frontlines in Tripoli are badly scarred and families have little if anything to return to.
People are also at risk of being killed or injured by dangerous unexploded munitions.
At the same time, infrastructure all over the country is falling apart.
People have little electricity, drinking water, sanitation, or medical care in the middle of a growing pandemic."
~~
The conflict has battered Libya's health system. Hospitals and clinics have been damaged in the fighting, while others were forced to shut their doors because they were close to the frontlines. Other facilities are decaying from underinvestment.
The economic impact of conflict and COVID-19 is also hard-felt. Most people surveyed by the ICRC said that their livelihoods have suffered because of COVID-19. Daily wage earners and migrants are the hardest-hit as income opportunities have evaporated as prices of staple foods have increased by about 20% on average but doubled in some areas. Prices are expected to climb further since Libya imports most of its food and oil production has ground to a halt. Milk, vegetables, bread, and fuel are already in short supply.
The ICRC is closely following the military build-up around Sirte and remains committed to its role of neutral intermediary between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) to address humanitarian needs and calls for safe and unimpeded access to people in need on all sides of the conflict.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008210069.html
People are also at risk of being killed or injured by dangerous unexploded munitions.
At the same time, infrastructure all over the country is falling apart.
People have little electricity, drinking water, sanitation, or medical care in the middle of a growing pandemic."
~~
The conflict has battered Libya's health system. Hospitals and clinics have been damaged in the fighting, while others were forced to shut their doors because they were close to the frontlines. Other facilities are decaying from underinvestment.
The economic impact of conflict and COVID-19 is also hard-felt. Most people surveyed by the ICRC said that their livelihoods have suffered because of COVID-19. Daily wage earners and migrants are the hardest-hit as income opportunities have evaporated as prices of staple foods have increased by about 20% on average but doubled in some areas. Prices are expected to climb further since Libya imports most of its food and oil production has ground to a halt. Milk, vegetables, bread, and fuel are already in short supply.
The ICRC is closely following the military build-up around Sirte and remains committed to its role of neutral intermediary between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) to address humanitarian needs and calls for safe and unimpeded access to people in need on all sides of the conflict.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008210069.html
Turkey says France's Macron 'hysterical' over Syria, Libya, East Med
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-frances-macron-hysterical-123917910.html
- Turkey's foreign minister said on Friday French President Emmanuel Macron had become "hysterical" over developments in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts and a dispute over maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Relations between NATO allies Turkey and France have deteriorated over conflicting policies in Syria, Libya and Turkey's dispute with Greece over energy resources, and the two sides have traded barbs in recent weeks.
Ankara accuses Paris of politically backing Libya's Khalifa Haftar against the Tripoli-based government recognised by the United Nations, having previously given him military assistance to fight Islamist militants. Paris denies this.
"In Libya they (France) supported the putschist Haftar and made a grave mistake," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said "Things changed, balances shifted, Haftar was defeated and Macron became hysterical."
Turkey and France also almost came to blows in June after a French warship attempted to inspect a Turkish vessel as part of a U.N. arms embargo against Libya.
Speaking to reporters in Ankara, Cavusoglu also said Turkey had thwarted French hope for Haftar to capture the Libyan capital by lending military support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), repelling Haftar's assault in June.
"With that hysteria, he didn't know what to do. Right after that, he said our ships had harassed their ships in the eastern Mediterranean but couldn't document this and was humiliated."
There was no immediate comment from Macron's Elysee office or the French foreign ministry on Cavusoglu's remarks.
France has supported Greece in the east Mediterranean, joining military exercises with Italy, Greece and Cyprus amid conflicting Greek-Turkish claims to continental shelves in areas of exploration for oil and natural gas.
Cavusoglu said France was the country provoking Greece the most in the eastern Mediterranean and urged Paris to cooperate with Turkey to achieve regional stability.
"There is no need for such hysterical behaviour from France, it makes them look laughable. We are two NATO member countries."
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-frances-macron-hysterical-123917910.html
- Turkey's foreign minister said on Friday French President Emmanuel Macron had become "hysterical" over developments in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts and a dispute over maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Relations between NATO allies Turkey and France have deteriorated over conflicting policies in Syria, Libya and Turkey's dispute with Greece over energy resources, and the two sides have traded barbs in recent weeks.
Ankara accuses Paris of politically backing Libya's Khalifa Haftar against the Tripoli-based government recognised by the United Nations, having previously given him military assistance to fight Islamist militants. Paris denies this.
"In Libya they (France) supported the putschist Haftar and made a grave mistake," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said "Things changed, balances shifted, Haftar was defeated and Macron became hysterical."
Turkey and France also almost came to blows in June after a French warship attempted to inspect a Turkish vessel as part of a U.N. arms embargo against Libya.
Speaking to reporters in Ankara, Cavusoglu also said Turkey had thwarted French hope for Haftar to capture the Libyan capital by lending military support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), repelling Haftar's assault in June.
"With that hysteria, he didn't know what to do. Right after that, he said our ships had harassed their ships in the eastern Mediterranean but couldn't document this and was humiliated."
There was no immediate comment from Macron's Elysee office or the French foreign ministry on Cavusoglu's remarks.
France has supported Greece in the east Mediterranean, joining military exercises with Italy, Greece and Cyprus amid conflicting Greek-Turkish claims to continental shelves in areas of exploration for oil and natural gas.
Cavusoglu said France was the country provoking Greece the most in the eastern Mediterranean and urged Paris to cooperate with Turkey to achieve regional stability.
"There is no need for such hysterical behaviour from France, it makes them look laughable. We are two NATO member countries."
Hundreds of young Libyans flooded the streets of Benghazi and other eastern cities in the past couple of days in a spontaneous outburst of anger over the area’s crippling electricity shortages.
Protesters in eastern Libya set piles of tires a blaze and blocked traffic in several major roads. On Saturday, protesters attempted to storm a security headquarters in eastern town of Marj.
The U.N. Support Mission in Libya, or UNSMIL, said at least one civilian was reportedly killed and three others were wounded.
It called for “a thorough and immediate” investigation into “the reported excessive use of force against peaceful demonstrations” and the speedy release of a number of detained protesters.
The demonstrations mirror similar recent protests over power cuts and corruption in the capital Tripoli and other western cities in recent weeks. The protests have led to a power struggle within the U.N.-supported government.
The recent protests across Libya were “motivated by deep-seated frustrations about sustained poor living conditions, shortages of electricity and water, rampant corruption, misgovernance, and a lack of service provision throughout the country,” the UNSMIL said.
Prime Minister Abdallah al-Thani submitted the resignation of his government to Aguila Saleh, speaker of the eastern-based House of Representatives, s
Protesters in eastern Libya set piles of tires a blaze and blocked traffic in several major roads. On Saturday, protesters attempted to storm a security headquarters in eastern town of Marj.
The U.N. Support Mission in Libya, or UNSMIL, said at least one civilian was reportedly killed and three others were wounded.
It called for “a thorough and immediate” investigation into “the reported excessive use of force against peaceful demonstrations” and the speedy release of a number of detained protesters.
The demonstrations mirror similar recent protests over power cuts and corruption in the capital Tripoli and other western cities in recent weeks. The protests have led to a power struggle within the U.N.-supported government.
The recent protests across Libya were “motivated by deep-seated frustrations about sustained poor living conditions, shortages of electricity and water, rampant corruption, misgovernance, and a lack of service provision throughout the country,” the UNSMIL said.
Prime Minister Abdallah al-Thani submitted the resignation of his government to Aguila Saleh, speaker of the eastern-based House of Representatives, s
Protesters set fire to the eastern-based government's headquarters in the Libyan city of Benghazi, as rare demonstrations over living conditions and corruption continued in the east of the country for a third day.
Several hundred protesters turned out in the eastern towns to demonstrate against the political elite and over deteriorating living conditions that include lengthy power cuts and a severe banking crisis.
Gunmen shoot dead female Libyan dissident in busy Benghazi street
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...male-libyan-dissident-in-busy-benghazi-street
Hanan al-Barassi, an outspoken critic of abuses in the eastern areas controlled by Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), was shot dead in her car in broad daylight on 20th Street, a busy artery in Benghazi’s city centre, rights groups and security officials said.
A prominent figure in Libya, 46-year-old Barassi was known for giving voice to female victims of violence in videos that she broadcast on social media.
She also ran a local association for the defence of women’s rights.
In the footage posted to her Facebook page just before she was shot, Barassi speaks to the camera while seated in her car and criticises armed groups close to Haftar, saying she had been “threatened”.
Barassi’s killing comes nearly a year and a half after the disappearance of another prominent women’s rights activist, Siham Sergiwa, who was abducted from her home in Benghazi by armed men on 17 July and has not been heard from since.
Before her abduction, Sergiwa had criticised an offensive launched by Haftar in April last year to take the capital Tripoli from the United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Relatives believe the former doctor was silenced by forces loyal to the 77-year-old strongman.
The latest murder has prompted an outcry across Libya, with many on social media demanding justice.
News of Barassi’s killing “is appalling and a painful reminder of the reality on the ground especially for women”, said Elham Saudi, a Libyan lawyer who is also known for her defence of human rights.
“With no accountability, violators will continue to get away with literal murder in broad daylight.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...male-libyan-dissident-in-busy-benghazi-street
Hanan al-Barassi, an outspoken critic of abuses in the eastern areas controlled by Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), was shot dead in her car in broad daylight on 20th Street, a busy artery in Benghazi’s city centre, rights groups and security officials said.
A prominent figure in Libya, 46-year-old Barassi was known for giving voice to female victims of violence in videos that she broadcast on social media.
She also ran a local association for the defence of women’s rights.
In the footage posted to her Facebook page just before she was shot, Barassi speaks to the camera while seated in her car and criticises armed groups close to Haftar, saying she had been “threatened”.
Barassi’s killing comes nearly a year and a half after the disappearance of another prominent women’s rights activist, Siham Sergiwa, who was abducted from her home in Benghazi by armed men on 17 July and has not been heard from since.
Before her abduction, Sergiwa had criticised an offensive launched by Haftar in April last year to take the capital Tripoli from the United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Relatives believe the former doctor was silenced by forces loyal to the 77-year-old strongman.
The latest murder has prompted an outcry across Libya, with many on social media demanding justice.
News of Barassi’s killing “is appalling and a painful reminder of the reality on the ground especially for women”, said Elham Saudi, a Libyan lawyer who is also known for her defence of human rights.
“With no accountability, violators will continue to get away with literal murder in broad daylight.”
Minister of Truth
Practically Perfect
That's like saying no one cares about Iraq because Saddam is dead.
Minister of Truth
Practically Perfect
Moments before her killing, Hanan al Barassi had been broadcasting a live video via Facebook
Who the hell let that woman drive?!!?
Libya under Qaddafi had women judges - driving was not restricted for women
Haftar mobilises troops in eastern Libya
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201127-haftar-mobilises-troops-in-eastern-libya/
Haftar has resumed efforts to mobilise troops and foreign mercenaries on the western and southern fronts of the city of Sirte. Meanwhile, the 5 + 5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) is holding meetings at its permanent headquarters to supervise the implementation of the Geneva ceasefire agreement.
This was confirmed by Commander of the Sirte-Jafra Liberation Operations Room Brigadier General Ibrahim Beit Al-Mal, who stated that the government forces detected extended movements by Haftar's militia south and west of Sirte and monitored the mobilisation of mercenaries and weapons.
The 5 + 5 military agreement, which was signed on 23 October in Geneva, included the warring parties' full adherence to a comprehensive ceasefire, the return of the forces stationed in Sirte and Jafra to their camps and the expulsion of mercenaries from the country within 90 days.
Following this agreement, the JMC held a fruitful meeting in the town of Ghadames (400 kilometres southwest of Tripoli) and another discussion at its permanent headquarters in Sirte. During the meeting, arrangements were made to implement the Geneva agreement, most notably the establishment of military and security sub-committees.
Consequently, Haftar's endeavour to send military convoys to the frontlines contradicts the spirit of the agreement, which aims to end the conflict and echoes an atmosphere of mistrust amid a vulnerable peace.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201127-haftar-mobilises-troops-in-eastern-libya/
Haftar has resumed efforts to mobilise troops and foreign mercenaries on the western and southern fronts of the city of Sirte. Meanwhile, the 5 + 5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) is holding meetings at its permanent headquarters to supervise the implementation of the Geneva ceasefire agreement.
This was confirmed by Commander of the Sirte-Jafra Liberation Operations Room Brigadier General Ibrahim Beit Al-Mal, who stated that the government forces detected extended movements by Haftar's militia south and west of Sirte and monitored the mobilisation of mercenaries and weapons.
The 5 + 5 military agreement, which was signed on 23 October in Geneva, included the warring parties' full adherence to a comprehensive ceasefire, the return of the forces stationed in Sirte and Jafra to their camps and the expulsion of mercenaries from the country within 90 days.
Following this agreement, the JMC held a fruitful meeting in the town of Ghadames (400 kilometres southwest of Tripoli) and another discussion at its permanent headquarters in Sirte. During the meeting, arrangements were made to implement the Geneva agreement, most notably the establishment of military and security sub-committees.
Consequently, Haftar's endeavour to send military convoys to the frontlines contradicts the spirit of the agreement, which aims to end the conflict and echoes an atmosphere of mistrust amid a vulnerable peace.
Libya's surprise oil outputs
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/11/27/libya-s-comeback-continues-to-surprise-oil-markets
Crude output has surged to nearly 1.25 million barrels a day from almost a dead start in September, thanks to a tentative peace between rival military forces. The OPEC member is already pumping about three-fourths as much as it did before the 2011 uprising that toppled strongman Moammar Al Qaddafi and triggered the country’s political and economic collapse.
The speed of the recovery took oil markets by surprise. It’s also causing anxiety for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia as they restrict global output to prop up crude prices. Libya is exempt from the cuts and currently supplies more oil than several of its OPEC peers. The so-called OPEC+ alliance is sure to weigh the impact of Libyan oil when it meets next week to assess its strategy as the coronavirus ravages fuel demand in much of the world.
The big unknown about Libya’s production -- for traders, analysts and oil minsters alike -- is whether it can be sustained or even increased to pre-conflict levels of around 1.6 million barrels a day. The boost in output over the past two months may have been the easy part. To produce still more crude, the country will need buckets of cash to fix and upgrade its energy infrastructure. That in turn will require a lasting peace and political settlement.
“Libya will likely struggle to produce above 1.3 million barrels a day,” said Mohammad Darwazah, an analyst at consultant Medley Global Advisors. “There is not much upside from these levels in the absence of investment.”
Libyan officials have hinted that they won’t discuss a potential OPEC quota for the country until it’s pumping at least 1.7 million barrels daily. OPEC typically gives any member suffering from conflict several years to recover before trying to cap its output.
Although Libya holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, years of strife and lost production have impoverished the government and state-run National Oil Corp. The NOC must repair damage to its oil fields, pumping stations and other facilities, many of which have been idle for years. The lack of routine nuts-and-bolts servicing has left pipelines corroding and storage tanks collapsing. Remedial work at wells alone could cost more than $100 million, NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla told Bloomberg in June.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/11/27/libya-s-comeback-continues-to-surprise-oil-markets
Crude output has surged to nearly 1.25 million barrels a day from almost a dead start in September, thanks to a tentative peace between rival military forces. The OPEC member is already pumping about three-fourths as much as it did before the 2011 uprising that toppled strongman Moammar Al Qaddafi and triggered the country’s political and economic collapse.
The speed of the recovery took oil markets by surprise. It’s also causing anxiety for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia as they restrict global output to prop up crude prices. Libya is exempt from the cuts and currently supplies more oil than several of its OPEC peers. The so-called OPEC+ alliance is sure to weigh the impact of Libyan oil when it meets next week to assess its strategy as the coronavirus ravages fuel demand in much of the world.
The big unknown about Libya’s production -- for traders, analysts and oil minsters alike -- is whether it can be sustained or even increased to pre-conflict levels of around 1.6 million barrels a day. The boost in output over the past two months may have been the easy part. To produce still more crude, the country will need buckets of cash to fix and upgrade its energy infrastructure. That in turn will require a lasting peace and political settlement.
“Libya will likely struggle to produce above 1.3 million barrels a day,” said Mohammad Darwazah, an analyst at consultant Medley Global Advisors. “There is not much upside from these levels in the absence of investment.”
Libyan officials have hinted that they won’t discuss a potential OPEC quota for the country until it’s pumping at least 1.7 million barrels daily. OPEC typically gives any member suffering from conflict several years to recover before trying to cap its output.
Although Libya holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, years of strife and lost production have impoverished the government and state-run National Oil Corp. The NOC must repair damage to its oil fields, pumping stations and other facilities, many of which have been idle for years. The lack of routine nuts-and-bolts servicing has left pipelines corroding and storage tanks collapsing. Remedial work at wells alone could cost more than $100 million, NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla told Bloomberg in June.