APP - Mid Term Prediction: As of today and subject to change

[Teflon Don]

Thanks Diane Feinstein and her last minute theatrics, I am ready to make a prediction on the mid terms. I reserve the right to change this prediction as more information is known. But, here goes


If the mid terms were held today. The GOP would hold the House and pick up 5-7 Senate seats. There is even an outside chance that they could get to 60 votes in the US Senate.

 

[Jarod]

Thanks Diane Feinstein and her last minute theatrics, I am ready to make a prediction on the mid terms. I reserve the right to change this prediction as more information is known. But, here goes


If the mid terms were held today. The GOP would hold the House and pick up 5-7 Senate seats. There is even an outside chance that they could get to 60 votes in the US Senate.

I think if it were today the Democrats would pick up 25-30 seats in the House and likely lose one or two seats in the Senate.

 

[Teflon Don]

I think if it were today the Democrats would pick up 25-30 seats in the House and likely lose one or two seats in the Senate.

Not a chance

You guys have no idea how this Kavanaugh spectacle has fired up the GOP.

I have talked to many people the last couple of weeks and it is unlike anything I have ever seen in politics. You can take it for what it is and choose not to believe it.

But as of today I stand by my prediction.

I have other reasons which I have been sharing with Grind in PM. But I shan’t say now

But if Dems manage to derail this because of Collins and Murkowski then I think the dems get wiped out.

Trump will have a very potent weapon with which to hit the campaign trail with.

And don’t give me Garland. You guys really didn’t care about him until Hillary lost. In fact I don’t think he was Obama’s first choice.

Obama’s never really squealed about it because he and you always thought Hillary would win. You miscalculated. You are actually more mad at yourselves than the Republicans.

 

[anonymoose]

I think if it were today the Democrats would pick up 25-30 seats in the House and likely lose one or two seats in the Senate.

I thought the media was predicting dems would take either the House or the Senate and possibly both.
So even you predict repubs will hold on to both?

 

[anonymoose]

Not a chance

You guys have no idea how this Kavanaugh spectacle has fired up the GOP.

I have talked to many people the last couple of weeks and it is unlike anything I have ever seen in politics. You can take it for what it is and choose not to believe it.

But as of today I stand by my prediction.

I have other reasons which I have been sharing with Grind in PM. But I shan’t say now

But if Dems manage to derail this because of Collins and Murkowski then I think the dems get wiped out.

Trump will have a very potent weapon with which to hit the campaign trail with.

If Kav gets derailed and repubs actually pick up seats I'd just renominate him if I were Trump. A big to the RINO's . He's outrageous enuf to do that.

 

[Jarod]

I thought the media was predicting dems would take either the House or the Senate and possibly both.
So even you predict repubs will hold on to both?

I think the Democrats have a chance at the House.. but, yes.. my prediction is different than "the media".

 

[Teflon Don]

I think the Democrats have a chance at the House.. but, yes.. my prediction is different than "the media".

They lost any chance they have of taking back the House and Senate with this charade. Mark my words.

Things can obviously change, there are unforeseen events that could rock the political world between now and election day. But, as it stands today, it is over for the democrat party this election cycle.

The only question that remains is whether they learn from the past four years or lurch farther to the left

 

[Teflon Don]

I will throw out a few more analytical points over and above why I think the GOP will keep the House and gain seats in the Senate

Any US Senator under 50% is probably in trouble.

There is no way that Desantis loses the governorship and Scott will beat Nelson

There is no way Cruz will lose Texas

The reason for this is that in each states primary while the democrat party turnout increased, they were dwarfed by republican turnout

The most recent NBC poll the enthusiasm of older, white republican males was through the roof. And that was before this Kavanaugh lynching

Now for the analysis you won't see ANYWHERE else. Key to the democrat party taking back the House of Representatives are seven seats in Commiefornia that have Republican representatives, but went for Hillary in the 2016 election. These are seats that are key to the democrat party. Little known to most people, but there is also a governor race in Commiefornia and the Republican candidate is putting up a very good fight against Gavin Newsom. Newsom does not have the lead one would expect in a lefty state like Commiefornia. Now, I am not for one second thinking that Cox can win, although if he does that would be a political shocker. No. I think he will lose. But, what I think will happen is that for the first time in a LONG time, Republicans in Commiefornia have a candidate at the top of the ticket that can draw out Republican voters. I think that the Republican turnout in Commiefornia is going to be very high and I think that is going to help House candidates.

 

[Teflon Don]

One other thing I will throw out that does make predicting 435 house races difficult is that I don't know EVERY ballot initiative that is out there that may impact turnout.

I know of one in West Virginia around funding Planned Parenthood. That could potentially hurt Manchin in his bid for re-election. He is popular in WV, that is no doubt. But, this is politics. Trump needs another vote so he can kick Collins and Murkowski to the curb

 

[Teflon Don]

So the GOP has already picked up three Senate seats after yesterday

You can safely put Montana, Indiana and Florida in the R column

That puts at 54-46

 

[Teflon Don]

You can now add Missouri to the list of Senate seats the GOP will pick up in November. I long suspected that McCaskill would lose this race for a lot of reasons

1) She came out very early with a "blame the russians" story. It was lame
2) She has not been running around on Morning Shmo like she did in her last campaign for Senate
3) She has been running under the magic number of 50% which almost ALWAYS spells trouble for an incumbent. When an incumbent runs under 50% undecideds almost always break with the challenger. It was a another factor I used to predict Hillary would lose. She was never ever over 50%
4) She came out last week and already claimed she was a no for Kavanaugh

Now this recent poll confirms that she is toast

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...18297/MOScout+Weekly+Poll-+Statewide+9.29.pdf

This recent poll shows Hawley with a 2.5% lead which is within the margin of error, but if you look at the internals (which I always do and is how I predicted Trump would win) it spells BIG time trouble for McCaskill

- McCaskill only has a big lead in St Louis which is no surprise
- She gets crushed everywhere else and is only leading by 1% in KC
- She is only leading with women by 1%. That is not a good number in a world where women supposedly hate Donald Trump AND McCaskill has a vagina
- They asked if the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh would make them more or less likely to vote for Claire - Among women 42% said More Likely and 47% said Less Likely - Devastating number for Claire

Now could Claire change her mind and vote yes on Kavanaugh and use the FBI investigation as an excuse? Maybe, and that could change things. But, as it stands Missouri goes into the GOP column

That makes 4 guaranteed pickups for the GOP in November, unless of course these democrats change their minds

 

[Teflon Don]

We can add another seat to the GOP column

Heitkamp is history. She is down by 10 points in most recent poll

That makes a five star pickup for the GOP.

Let Collins Murkowski and Flake play their games.

 

[anonymoose]

If republicans do make it to 54 in the senate and Kav is not confirmed , if I were Trump I'd nominate a hard core Darth Vader type for the S.C. and dare the rino's to try to undermine the nomination.

 

[Teflon Don]

If republicans do make it to 54 in the senate and Kav is not confirmed , if I were Trump I'd nominate a hard core Darth Vader type for the S.C. and dare the rino's to try to undermine the nomination.

They will go beyond 54. I am guessing at a minimum to 56 possibly 58

No way. Trump needs to stay with Kavanaugh.

Hopefully when Ginsburg kicks he nominates Barrett and let the left go crazy on her

 

[anonymoose]

Trump needs to stay with Kavanaugh.

He is. I'm just saying if Kav doesn't get confirmed by the senate.

They will go beyond 54. I am guessing at a minimum to 56 possibly 58

If they go that far I'd advise Trump to infuriate the left and rino's even more by renominating Kav.

Hopefully when Ginsburg kicks he nominates Barrett and let the left go crazy on her

i have no position on Roe v. Wade but wouldn't mind seeing it overturned just for the spectacle.

 

[Teflon Don]

He is. I'm just saying if Kav doesn't get confirmed by the senate. If they go that far I'd advise Trump to infuriate the left and rino's even more by renominating Kav.
i have no position on Roe v. Wade but wouldn't mind seeing it overturned just for the spectacle.

Agreed

This mid term is going to make the libs more sad than 2016

 

[Teflon Don]

Update

Still maintain 5-7 seat pickup in the US Senate. Not sure where this conventional wisdom is of a two seat pick up. Seems too small to me. And I really don't see a path to the democrat party taking back the Senate. If Heller holds on to Nevada then there is ZERO chance of the dems getting the Senate

The House is much tougher. I think the democrat party picks up seats, but the GOP maintains control.

Other prediction:

If my original prediction comes true the left will absolutely lose its collective mind

 

[anonymoose]

Other prediction:

If my original prediction comes true the left will absolutely lose its collective mind

How can it be lost anymore than November 8, 2016 ?

 

[Teflon Don]

As of today I stand by predictions

5-7 Senate seats

GOP loses seats but hangs onto the House

No predictions in governors races

 

[Teflon Don]

One thing is making this mid term hard to handicap is the stark difference between the House and Senate

Splitting tickets is pretty rare at the national level, so it is hard to believe that people will vote republican for Senate and democrat for the House

The democrats are lined up to retake the House by a slim margin, but I think the GOP can hang on