APP - Mid Term Prediction: As of today and subject to change

Teflon Don said:
Thanks Diane Feinstein and her last minute theatrics, I am ready to make a prediction on the mid terms. I reserve the right to change this prediction as more information is known. But, here goes


If the mid terms were held today. The GOP would hold the House and pick up 5-7 Senate seats. There is even an outside chance that they could get to 60 votes in the US Senate.
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Thanks for the 10/16 update.

We will see... I am holding on to my prediction.

Democrats get 25 seats in the House.
Senate remains the same or the R's get up to 2 seats.
Florida governor still too close to call.
 
Jarod said:
It depends on how you define a wave. Getting the house, with the odds so bad against the Democrats is a wave to me.
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Sorry Jarod. Can't let you get away with that spin. Up until recently some were predicting a 40-60 seat pickup in the House and possibly the Senate

While winning the House is still winning the House, if the dems only have a 1-2 seat majority, that will be a major disappointment, although your side will try to spin it as a MAJOR victory
 
Teflon Don said:
One thing is making this mid term hard to handicap is the stark difference between the House and Senate

Splitting tickets is pretty rare at the national level, so it is hard to believe that people will vote republican for Senate and democrat for the House

The democrats are lined up to retake the House by a slim margin, but I think the GOP can hang on
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the reason is democrats have more seats to defend, and many are in red states, so they have way more points of failure than the republicans do. all states are voting for house, but mostly red states are voting senate.
 
Teflon Don said:
Sorry Jarod. Can't let you get away with that spin. Up until recently some were predicting a 40-60 seat pickup in the House and possibly the Senate

While winning the House is still winning the House, if the dems only have a 1-2 seat majority, that will be a major disappointment, although your side will try to spin it as a MAJOR victory
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lol can you believe these guys? they were the one talking about a "wave".... eeeking out a slight win is not a "wave"
 
Independants dont approve of the temper tantrum politics the left has adopted.
When in doubt people vote their wallet.
And only an earthworm would believe the snakeoil they are promising.
 
Teflon Don said:
Sorry Jarod. Can't let you get away with that spin. Up until recently some were predicting a 40-60 seat pickup in the House and possibly the Senate

While winning the House is still winning the House, if the dems only have a 1-2 seat majority, that will be a major disappointment, although your side will try to spin it as a MAJOR victory
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So tell me, what would constitute a wave?

BTW, show me a cite where a Democrat has predicted a wave? (I already know you don't have one.)
 
Jarod said:
So tell me, what would constitute a wave?

BTW, show me a cite where a Democrat has predicted a wave? (I already know you don't have one.)
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You will have to ask those predicting the wave as to what they think constitutes a wave. Here are a couple democrats predicting a wave. I can't believe you didn't see it. You actually responded in the one thread :)


Jack said:
This may be their only chance to get a real asshole appointed to Supreme Court, they should confirm him as soon as possible.
They already know a Blue Wave is coming, they just have to hope they hold the Senate and get one more LIFETIME appointment in place.
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blackascoal said:
Washington (CNN)With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/democratic-wave-growing-analysis/index.html
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Teflon Don said:
You will have to ask those predicting the wave as to what they think constitutes a wave. Here are a couple democrats predicting a wave. I can't believe you didn't see it. You actually responded in the one thread :)
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So you are to timid to say what YOU THINK a waive is?

If the Democrats take the House by 5, is that a waive?

You are predicting their wont be a blue waive.....

So what would it look like if you were wrong?
 
Jarod said:
So you are to timid to say what YOU THINK a waive is?

If the Democrats take the House by 5, is that a waive?

You are predicting their wont be a blue waive.....

So what would it look like if you were wrong?
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Oh ok. I will make you happy. A wave would be a pick up of 40 seats in the House and retaking the Senate. Anything short will not be a wave in my view
 
Teflon Don said:
Oh ok. I will make you happy. A wave would be a pick up of 40 seats in the House and retaking the Senate. Anything short will not be a wave in my view
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THanks... I agree strongly with you, that is not going to happen.
 
I wont call it a wave by your standards, but if the Democrats pick up 10 seats in the house and keep the senate the same I will consider it a pretty good loss for TRump.
 
Updating prediction

Looks like Manchin will probably survive.

That idiot Murkowski saved him

Heitkamp is finished
 
Teflon Don said:
Not a chance

You guys have no idea how this Kavanaugh spectacle has fired up the GOP.

I have talked to many people the last couple of weeks and it is unlike anything I have ever seen in politics. You can take it for what it is and choose not to believe it.

But as of today I stand by my prediction.

I have other reasons which I have been sharing with Grind in PM. But I shan’t say now

But if Dems manage to derail this because of Collins and Murkowski then I think the dems get wiped out.

Trump will have a very potent weapon with which to hit the campaign trail with.

And don’t give me Garland. You guys really didn’t care about him until Hillary lost. In fact I don’t think he was Obama’s first choice.

Obama’s never really squealed about it because he and you always thought Hillary would win. You miscalculated. You are actually more mad at yourselves than the Republicans.
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Hahaha, still holding on to "not a chance"?
 
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