Dems Continue to Rehabilitate and Unify With Bush-Era Neocons
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blackascoal
The Force is With Me
Russia's future looks bleak without economic and political reform
When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realize his strategic ambitions for Russia.
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Russia’s state-owned media juggernaut has been able to turn western sanctions into a scapegoat for the government’s own failures, and to whip up support for foreign adventurism – including the seizure of the Crimea, military intervention in Syria, and meddling in US elections. Most Russians, constantly manipulated by their country’s schools and media, are convinced that conditions are much worse in the west (a hyperbolic claim even in the era of “fake news”).
Unfortunately, such disinformation is hardly a recipe for generating reform. And, without reform, there is little reason to be optimistic about Russia’s long-run growth trend, given its poor demographic profile, weak institutions and abject failure to diversify its economy, despite having an enormously talented and creative population.
Where will future growth come from? If the world continues to move toward a low-carbon future, Russia will confront an inevitable choice: launch economic and political reforms or face continuing marginalisation, with or without western sanctions. No meeting between the US and Russian presidents can change that reality.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...to-be-cheerful-about-russias-growth-prospects
Don't be fooled. Russia faces serious major problems internally, many of which go beyond just its economic woes.
When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realize his strategic ambitions for Russia.
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Russia’s state-owned media juggernaut has been able to turn western sanctions into a scapegoat for the government’s own failures, and to whip up support for foreign adventurism – including the seizure of the Crimea, military intervention in Syria, and meddling in US elections. Most Russians, constantly manipulated by their country’s schools and media, are convinced that conditions are much worse in the west (a hyperbolic claim even in the era of “fake news”).
Unfortunately, such disinformation is hardly a recipe for generating reform. And, without reform, there is little reason to be optimistic about Russia’s long-run growth trend, given its poor demographic profile, weak institutions and abject failure to diversify its economy, despite having an enormously talented and creative population.
Where will future growth come from? If the world continues to move toward a low-carbon future, Russia will confront an inevitable choice: launch economic and political reforms or face continuing marginalisation, with or without western sanctions. No meeting between the US and Russian presidents can change that reality.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...to-be-cheerful-about-russias-growth-prospects
Don't be fooled. Russia faces serious major problems internally, many of which go beyond just its economic woes.
yes it's an extraction economy. Absolutely! the west has that hand to play....so play it!!
Ken Rogoff ( author above in BAC's post) opposed the Obama stimulus, so I question his thesis that Russia need reform
It obviously does long term, but I think the economy can still do OK depending on oil/gas costs.
(Nordsteam 2 isn't factored in either)
And recall Trump is opening up our energy markets in a big way..
It obviously does long term, but I think the economy can still do OK depending on oil/gas costs.
(Nordsteam 2 isn't factored in either)
And recall Trump is opening up our energy markets in a big way..
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
yes it's an extraction economy. Absolutely! the west has that hand to play....so play it!!
It is being played .. and Russia suffers because of it.
None of your analysis spoke to any of these very obvious truths. Putin is not the invincible strongman that you portray him to be and the US does not have to kiss his ass to control his ambitions.
well Obama sure as hell couldn't control his ambitions. But Putin's "ambitions" are pretty much accomplished
dominate role in Syria -able to keep Assad in power -keeping secure as a client state.
geo-political partnership w/Iran
strategic and economic advances in Egypt
stable if not economic expansion with China and the Eurasian Economic Union
Aiding all 3 Libyan governments-but actively backing General Hiftar's Bengazi (eastern) government.
also of course the Crimean annexation/Donbass war
++
what else does he want? = Arctic push for oil and territory
what card can we play?
(no we aren't playing any card) lifting of sanctions in return for him out of Donbass
-that would be YUGE. It would settle Ukraine as a border state, with Crimea settled as Russian
It would also cut out the hysterical "Putin has his eyes on the Baltics" - a ridiculous postulate,
but one that must be fed because of Cold War 2 drama
You should be apologizing for supposedly being a white, educated, wealthy liberal who is not of that and living on public assistance. Do you need a ride to Canada?
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I'm not trying to attack you personally brother .. but your analysis is seriously flawed. I've been telling you that since you've been on this Trump-induced lovefest with an adversary/enemy.
You research looking for validation .. which is entirely different than looking for truth. How could you possibly miss the weak economic hand Putin holds in your analysis? How? Either you missed this truth, or you simply ignored it .. which would be worse because it would mean that you're intentionally spreading propaganda.
However, if you missed it, then I ask again, what if what you think is wrong .. especially given that what you think is not thorough.
Obama was right to avoid more costly wars .. and if Putin has ships sitting off the coast of Egypt, we should applaud everytime Putin spends more of his limited resources on show and tell games going nowhere. Putin doesn't have the upper hand no matter how badly you try to prove it.
War? Get real. Russia is in no shape to go to war with the US .. or more specifically, NATO .. for those who like to talk shit about NATO .. which basically does what we want them to do.
Odd that you rush to attack Obama while praising Putin. Shouldn't you be happy that you now know how limited Putin's resources are? Shouldn't you be happy that you now know we don't have to kiss his ass? Shouldn't you be absolutely ecstatic to now know that YOUR country maintains the upper hand?
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PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
I will post it as it becomes available.......
so in the meantime you'll stop pretending you have something to say?.....
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
fortunately, annata is still smarter than the board's lib'ruls........
I haven't "missed it. I mentioned it's improving -read the article that give the short term forecast
the one's you posted are long term systemic problems..but their economy is still improving in 2017 over last year-again read that link i gave you.
I even mentioned it was an extraction economy, and I've showed Putin is now pressing into the Arctic along with Nordstream 2 .
if/when energy prices do come back up - and despite Russian systemic corruption-their economy will be back in the 2-2.5%GDP growth range.
?
of course he was right not to war over Crimea. Have I ever said otherwise?
Obama's crime was his negligence in NOT engaging Putin w/diplomacy, even though he didn't war.
as a result, and in combination w/Obama's idiotic sanction on Egypt, and his dithering with the Sunni states - while playing patsy w/ Iran; that played right into Putin's hands .
it gave Egypt and SA /Sunni states real reasons to start buying weapons from Moscow.
And it isn't just limited to weapons. Sisi has signed contracts for fertilizer and agriculture with Moscow.
It's not just about "ships" ( hard power ) it's letting Russia back into the ME as a trading partner as well as a security partner.
Obama did this by his inability to deal with Putin,as well as his stupid moves in the ME
COLD WAR NOT GOING TO WAR
Cold war 2. escalations . more battalions in Latvia/dangerous war games in the Baltics/increase tank battalions in Poland/permanent deployments in Finland ( all new)..
I could go on and on..and for what? not for 'security'
That makes the situation yet more tense/more expensive to deal with, and any "trip wire conflict" could set off a real shooting war.
This is not desirable to the USA/NATO or Russia -so what do we do?? add MORE SANCTIONS and make it impossible to de-escalate by Trump.. do you see how insane this is??
if nothing else please tell me you see the craziness of mindless escalations!
I don't "praise Putin. Bottom line he is a KGB thug. I'm am a American and I want us to win any conflicts -hard or soft.
But i do admire Putin ( this is what Trump was saying) because he has an inferior economy, an inferior military- yet he managed to make considerable gains without firing a shot.
He is one hell of a great geo-political chess player, while Obama wasn't even playing checkers.
So what's the best path forward? as well as SEEKING PEACE and detente' maybe we should give him his due that he is shrewd. But like you said he is hurting from sanctions.
That looks like an ideal situation to talk to him,and negotiate to better both our situations ( realpolitik)
You gotta get past this Russiaphobic mindset that is sweeping up everything into a "zero sum game" where anything we do to unscrew pressure is automatically considered a win for Putin.
That's how John McCain reacts.That's what neocons drive. and agenda to cripple Putin but also not to advantage
ourselves.
If we can ratchett down Cold War spending - even if Putin does the same -is that not a good thing for us to do??
PS. I appreciate you reaching out good brother. While we never agree on domestic politics, i have always valued your ideas on war/foreign relations.. I hope you consider what I say with an open mind.
There is a much better way forward for the world, then the set p we have now.
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I will always have something to say, & you will always troll, the cycle of life......
If someone insults Russia or Putin, you come running to their defense. You watch documentaries that are flattering and sympathetic to Putin, you subscribe to Russia Today, you trash America's government while heaping praise on how well Russia is run. All of your arguments, all of your comments, are tilted towards Russian interests. You trash American presidents while knob-bobbing on Putin. It's disgusting. You're by far the most offensive poster on these forums -- you pretend to be a Buddhist, while bending over backwards to flatter and present a pro-Putin argument (Putin being the antithesis of Buddhist values). Even your veiled attempt to conceal your true intentions barely masks your girlish man-crush on Putin.
^ should I answer this trash? one thing to clarify is Buddhist doctrine is apolitical.
The 8 Fold Path are the steps we use, and they are based on how to navigate (solve) the 4 Noble Truths
4 Noble Truths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Noble_Truths
now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of suffering: birth is suffering, aging is suffering, illness is suffering, death is suffering; union with what is displeasing is suffering; separation from what is pleasing is suffering; not to get what one wants is suffering; in brief, the five aggregates subject to clinging are suffering.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the origin of suffering: it is this craving which leads to re-becoming, accompanied by delight and lust, seeking delight here and there; that is, craving for sensual pleasures, craving for becoming, craving for disbecoming.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the cessation of suffering: it is the remainderless fading away and cessation of that same craving, the giving up and relinquishing of it, freedom from it, non-reliance on it.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the way leading to the cessation of suffering: it is this noble eightfold path;
that is, right view, right intention, right speech, right action, right livelihood, right effort, right mindfulness, right concentration.[web 7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Noble_Truths
Just this noble eightfold path: right view, right aspiration, right speech, right action, right livelihood, right effort, right mindfulness, right concentration. That is the ancient path, the ancient road, traveled by the Rightly Self-awakened Ones of former times. I followed that path. Following it, I came to direct knowledge of aging & death, direct knowledge of the origination of aging & death, direct knowledge of the cessation of aging & death, direct knowledge of the path leading to the cessation of aging & death. I followed that path. Following it, I came to direct knowledge of birth... becoming... clinging... craving... feeling... contact... the six sense media... name-&-form... consciousness, direct knowledge of the origination of consciousness, direct knowledge of the cessation of consciousness, direct knowledge of the path leading to the cessation of consciousness. I followed that path.
— The Buddha, Nagara Sutta, Samyutta Nikaya ii.124, Translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu[33][34]
Symbols of Buddhism are the stupa (and the relics therein), the Dharma wheel, the Bodhi tree (and the distinctively shaped leaves of this tree) and the lotus flower. The dharma wheel, traditionally represented with eight spokes, can have a variety of meanings.
The 8 Fold Path are the steps we use, and they are based on how to navigate (solve) the 4 Noble Truths
4 Noble Truths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Noble_Truths
now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of suffering: birth is suffering, aging is suffering, illness is suffering, death is suffering; union with what is displeasing is suffering; separation from what is pleasing is suffering; not to get what one wants is suffering; in brief, the five aggregates subject to clinging are suffering.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the origin of suffering: it is this craving which leads to re-becoming, accompanied by delight and lust, seeking delight here and there; that is, craving for sensual pleasures, craving for becoming, craving for disbecoming.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the cessation of suffering: it is the remainderless fading away and cessation of that same craving, the giving up and relinquishing of it, freedom from it, non-reliance on it.
Now this, bhikkhus, is the noble truth of the way leading to the cessation of suffering: it is this noble eightfold path;
that is, right view, right intention, right speech, right action, right livelihood, right effort, right mindfulness, right concentration.[web 7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Noble_Truths
Just this noble eightfold path: right view, right aspiration, right speech, right action, right livelihood, right effort, right mindfulness, right concentration. That is the ancient path, the ancient road, traveled by the Rightly Self-awakened Ones of former times. I followed that path. Following it, I came to direct knowledge of aging & death, direct knowledge of the origination of aging & death, direct knowledge of the cessation of aging & death, direct knowledge of the path leading to the cessation of aging & death. I followed that path. Following it, I came to direct knowledge of birth... becoming... clinging... craving... feeling... contact... the six sense media... name-&-form... consciousness, direct knowledge of the origination of consciousness, direct knowledge of the cessation of consciousness, direct knowledge of the path leading to the cessation of consciousness. I followed that path.
— The Buddha, Nagara Sutta, Samyutta Nikaya ii.124, Translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu[33][34]
Symbols of Buddhism are the stupa (and the relics therein), the Dharma wheel, the Bodhi tree (and the distinctively shaped leaves of this tree) and the lotus flower. The dharma wheel, traditionally represented with eight spokes, can have a variety of meanings.
In my opinion, you are correct to question the portrayal of Putin as an invulnerable strongman, an authoritarian of extraordinary powers. This perception I believe is largely based on the bi-curious sexual attraction many rightwing males feel towards Vladimir.
It is remarkable to me that certain message board Trumptards who don’t actually know any Russians, have never been to Russia, and hold no special scholarly training in east Slavic Europe hold themselves out to be armchair experts on Russia, based on perusing some rightwing blogs. For personal reasons, I have a powerful affinity for Russia; I have lived around Russians, my life force is imbued with the culture, language, and essence of Russia; and yet I am the first to admit – a la Winston Churchill – that Russia is an enigma, a mystery to the western mind.
The analysis I see from message board and cable news pundits completely seems to miss key historical and cultural context specific to a native East Slav. Russians tolerate and accept Putin’s authoritarianism, but only to a degree. There is something of a Faustian bargain with the devil between the Russian people and their leaders, whether it be tsars, Soviet premiers, or Putin-esque oligarchs. Based on my interactions with East Slavic people, my travels there, and my cultural awareness, there is a vague feeling that Russia is always on the edge of a blade. Political revolution is always just a stone’s throw away. I mean nobody in the west ever saw the Bolshevik revolution coming, nor the rapid demise of the once (presumably invulnerable) Soviet totalitarian government. Putin's influence and power may be only manifested by his unholy alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church, strategic reserves of oil, and the fact that he cunningly allows a certain amount of economic freedom for Russians, but absent political freedom.
Putin Lights Up the Fires
Pussy Riot
This state may be stronger than time in jail.
The more arrests, the happier it is.
Every arrest is carried out with love for the sexist
Who botoxed his cheeks and pumped his chest and abs.
But you can't nail us in the coffin.
Throw off the yoke of former KGB!
Putin is lighting the fires of revolution
He's bored and scared of sharing silence with the people
With every execution: the stench of rotten ash
With every long sentence: a wet dream
The country is going, the country is going into the streets boldly
The country is going, the country is going to bid farewell to the regime
The country is going, the country is going, like a feminist wedge
And Putin is going, Putin is going to say goodbye like a sheep
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This!
Then anatta deflects to copy paste mode and tries to teach his betters again.
Fuck off Wonder Bread.
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I'm rushing to church .. and my wife is looking at me like 'what in the hell are you doing on the computer when you know we need to get going.' :0) But I'm going to deal with that because I want to reply just a bit. I'll reply in more detail when I get back.
I welcome, welcome your thoughts on everything society good brother .. and I apologize for the rancor .. but then again, I don't.
Sometimes rancor is necessary. Sometimes you have to fight your friends.
Looking forward to the peace.
you are always a friend BAC, and I always want to hear your ideas. I have given back rancour myself at times.
It's the nature of us being frank with each other -we are both passionate about what issues we care about.
Have a spiritual morning experience. no worries and no hurrys. I'll be around when you get around to response