When consumption is low oil companies decrease production that is the reason production fell from 13,000,00 to a low of 9,713,000 during the Trump administration but consumption started to increase and production was steadily recovering. Going from 9.713,000 to 11,124,000 when Biden took over. When Biden took over Trump had left him with 3 vaccines and therapeutics to fight COVID with and things began to ease up with COVID. Oil consumption rose and production rose with it.
The best indicator is DUC which has fallen under the Biden administration and is a bad sign.