Agreed with the "perfect storm of conditions". Based upon the results, everything needs to be perfect and, even then, life may not arise.
I'd say within 50 years we should be able to thoroughly test the hypothesis that biology is inevitable in the presence of liquid water. If we don't find microbial life, or fossil evidence for it, on Mars, Europa, Ganymede, Enceladus we probably need to rethink our assumptions for how ubiquitous life is in the galaxy.
On the other hand, if microbial life can exist on Europa, it would be a confirmation of just how tenacious life is.