Poll: Will the Stock Market be back to normal by November?

Will the Stock Market be back to normal?

  • Yes. The Dow will be around 29,000.

    Votes: 2 15.4%

  • No. We're range bound at about 23,000.

    Votes: 4 30.8%

  • IDK, we could re-test the lows at 18,000?

    Votes: 7 53.8%
  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
floridafan said:
Based upon where our economy is now and will be in the months ahead there is no reason for the market to go anywhere but down
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If you're a Capitalist with a Massive Pile of Money ... what are you going to do with it? (No. Not bury it in a can in the backyard)
 
archives said:
Don't bet on it, kinda ironic thing to say, but with the trillions of dollars the Gov't is pumping in, plus the additional dollars opened up by the Fed, the Market has enough liquidity to keep it afloat if not improving. Remembering 2009, with the infusion of similar dollars it rode a bull market up until this year even with a recession of historical proportions
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Exactly. Too many people think there is a direct correlation between the performance of the stock market and the economy when that is clearly not the case. The last decade being a perfect example.

I have a buddy I turn to for many things financial. His comment to me was this: "I also think the only way the recent stock market recovery makes sense is that people are convinced that government will not let businesses fail. Not far off is government controls the means of production."

My buddy's a smart dude (actually had Elizabeth Warren as a professor at HLS). Now because someone's smart doesn't mean they are always correct so his word is no more valuable than anyone else's. But I get the premise of what he's saying.
 
cawacko said:
Exactly. Too many people think there is a direct correlation between the performance of the stock market and the economy when that is clearly not the case. The last decade being a perfect example.

I have a buddy I turn to for many things financial. His comment to me was this: "I also think the only way the recent stock market recovery makes sense is that people are convinced that government will not let businesses fail. Not far off is government controls the means of production."

My buddy's a smart dude (actually had Elizabeth Warren as a professor at HLS). Now because someone's smart doesn't mean they are always correct so his word is no more valuable than anyone else's. But I get the premise of what he's saying.
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True, the Market is just one economic indicator, however, because it gets so much public attention, people look to it as something that it isn't, even got four or five cable networks that cover it daily.

Plus, and I know you don't want to hear it, like USC football, but Trump, unlike prior Presidents who knew better, has tied his Presidency on the fortunes of the Market, which gives it additional attention from those that like/dislike him

And I don't know if I'd buy the "not far off is Governmemt controls the means of production," can't see that happening
 
Dutch Uncle said:
So would I, but neither he or anyone else likely to win be on the ballot. I'll be voting a straight Libertarian ticket...unless Pence is the headliner on the Republican side. ;)
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It's a free country- hopefully a free election- but as your Mom taught you- "Don't bite off your very nose- to spite your own face"!

The only thing that matters is one thing- any vote other than Joe Biden- IS A VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP!
 
archives said:
True, the Market is just one economic indicator, however, because it gets so much public attention, people look to it as something that it isn't, even got four or five cable networks that cover it daily.

Plus, and I know you don't want to hear it, like USC football, but Trump, unlike prior Presidents who knew better, has tied his Presidency on the fortunes of the Market, which gives it additional attention from those that like/dislike him

And I don't know if I'd buy the "not far off is Governmemt controls the means of production," can't see that happening
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CNBC can cover the market 24/7 and politicians can say anything but that doesn’t change the fundamental fact that there isn’t a direct correlation between the economy and the stock market. The economy may slow down and people may lose jobs but the stock market can continue to rise.

There’s talk of nationalizing the airlines already. And with these ‘loans and bailouts’ we’re seeing a lot of covenants allowing more government involvement in certain industries. I don’t think my friend means we will go full blown socialist over night but we will see far more government involvement going forward
 
archives said:
True, the Market is just one economic indicator, however, because it gets so much public attention, people look to it as something that it isn't, even got four or five cable networks that cover it daily.

Plus, and I know you don't want to hear it, like USC football, but Trump, unlike prior Presidents who knew better, has tied his Presidency on the fortunes of the Market, which gives it additional attention from those that like/dislike him

And I don't know if I'd buy the "not far off is Governmemt controls the means of production," can't see that happening
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I believe this was the lead story in the Journal. Crappy economic situation, best two week performance from the market since the 1930's. Thank the Fed.


The Stock Market Is Ignoring the Economy

The Dow enjoyed its best two-week stretch in more than 80 years, but the economy is still struggling

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-ignoring-the-economy-11587160802?mod=hp_lead_pos1
 
Geeko Sportivo said:
It's a free country- hopefully a free election- but as your Mom taught you- "Don't bite off your very nose- to spite your own face"!

The only thing that matters is one thing- any vote other than Joe Biden- IS A VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP!
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Actually a vote for President is a vote for who you want to win. You put up sh*tty candidates, don't get upset when people don't vote for them.
 
cawacko said:
Actually a vote for President is a vote for who you want to win. You put up sh*tty candidates, don't get upset when people don't vote for them.
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I'm sorry dude, but a vote for Santa Claus is a wasted vote- because Santa is not on the ballot.

And Donald Trump is about the most shitty candidate one could have on a ballot. So are you sure you want to talk about shitty candidates?

I'm voting for Joe Biden, and It won't make me mad if you or anyone else don't vote for him. So, thanks, but I don't understand the reason for your comment!
 
Geeko Sportivo said:
I'm sorry dude, but a vote for Santa Claus is a wasted vote- because Santa is not on the ballot.

And Donald Trump is about the most shitty candidate one could have on a ballot. So are you sure you want to talk about shitty candidates?

I'm voting for Joe Biden, and It won't make me mad if you or anyone else don't vote for him. So, thanks, but I don't understand the reason for your comment!
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My belief is if Republicans or Democrats don't want people voting for third party candidates then run better candidates. To me, to each his own how they decide to vote. You'll hear people complain when people don't vote but then complain when they do vote if they don't vote for the right person.

I understand our system is not set up well for a non D or R to win. But at the end of the day if enough people step out of the group think mindset that voting third party is "throwing away your vote" then someone who is worthy can win.
 
cawacko said:
My belief is if Republicans or Democrats don't want people voting for third party candidates then run better candidates. To me, to each his own how they decide to vote. You'll hear people complain when people don't vote but then complain when they do vote if they don't vote for the right person.

I understand our system is not set up well for a non D or R to win. But at the end of the day if enough people step out of the group think mindset that voting third party is "throwing away your vote" then someone who is worthy can win.
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Agreed. The Republican Party, of which Lincoln was their first President, was a "third party" that didn't rise to power until the Whigs collapsed in on themselves. I think the current Republican Party is headed that direction. So who will take over? IMO, the Libertarians.


Add to this the simple math even Ms. Hillary "3 million votes" Clinton only won 48.2% of the vote because so many Americans voted their conscience, not for who they think will win.
 
cawacko said:
My belief is if Republicans or Democrats don't want people voting for third party candidates then run better candidates. To me, to each his own how they decide to vote. You'll hear people complain when people don't vote but then complain when they do vote if they don't vote for the right person.

I understand our system is not set up well for a non D or R to win. But at the end of the day if enough people step out of the group think mindset that voting third party is "throwing away your vote" then someone who is worthy can win.
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I don't like the binary system either. Let's take Bernie for example, he would still be in the race as a Socialist Democrat. Not sure he is the best example because he looked like he was losing steam after Nevada. But in his defense, he felt that running as a 3rd party would harm the party so he chose to run as a Democrat. His choice- and he was welcomed to run as a Democrat by the DNC and no one including Bernie is saying that the DNC was unfair to him in any way.

I am sure one day a strong Independent will give both parties a run for the money- I just don't think this was the year for that because of the nightmare of Donald Trump winning again. Maybe 2024.

And also just so you will know, Democrats have never tried to pass legislation to prevent 3rd parties. The Democrats are simply that Democratic. For Democrats a majority wins. But not for Republicans. Republicans think a majority has to be 51% or more and nothing less. But forget that as far as the presidential race goes, the Republicans want to stick with the Delegation system which is even wackier than their ideas about what a majority is.

But anyway, in my thinking a majority could be 34% and win in a 3 way race. I do not think the Republicans will ever see it that way!
 
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