Senior U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia found dead at West Texas r

cawacko said:
(Many) minority voters HATE Trump and there are a number of Republicans who don't like him either. Of course what people say today and what happens on election day can be two different things but no Republican can win with white votes only and I don't see how Trump draws many minority voters.

Rubio, IMO, has the best chance to win a national election on the Republican side. Kind of interesting closing statement last night though when he said he's a 21st Century candidate and then said we need to ban abortion and marriage should be between a man and a woman. I know he was trying to appeal to South Carolina voters with that comment but quite the dichotomy. He's still a very conservative politician but has a good backstory that he can sell to national independent voters.
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Funny enough but last night Trump finally said something I agreed with whole-heartedly when he criticized bush about 9/11 and the Iraq war.
 
Damocles said:
And I think the Senate will go with the WH because of the higher numbers of votes. Basically the whole government is up for grabs. The House will remain republican, but the Senate I think will go the way of the WH.
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It is a big risk for the R's to refuse to vote on a nominee. They have a chance, because Obama will want his first choice confirmed, to get a moderate out of this opening... But if they wait and HRC is president... And the Senate goes Democrat(ic) it will certainly be a very liberal justice.

If Trump wins, it's likely to not be a conservative.
 
cawacko said:
A center left party does not come this close to nominating a democratic socialist.
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It's not the party, it's the people. I can assure you, the party would prefer Hillary. It's like the GOP and Trump, the party doesn't want Trump, but it looks like the people do.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
and an even better chance that the Republicans do.......
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Well in fairy land, Middle Earth and right wing never, never land that may be true but here in the reality based world the polling data is clearly showing that the Dems, if the election were held now, would win both the White House and the Senate. Currently only two the 6 remaining GOP candidates poll competitively against the Dem nominee and both of them, Rubio and Kasich, are long shots to win the nomination. If Trump, Cruz or Bush wins the nomination the GOP can kiss good bye to the White House and if either Trump or Cruz wins the nomination than the GOP knows they will lose the White House, The Senate and make serious inroads into the house.

So if GOP party leaders are aware of this, and they are, then don't BS yourself. a Trump or Cruz nomination would be a catastrophe for both the GOP and the right wing movement in this nation.

So this could play into the GOP Senate leaderships decision. If Obama sends a center left nominee the GOP may decide to choose to go fishing instead of cutting bait and confirm that nominee knowing that if they lose the general election in 2016 the SCOTUS nominee may damned well be Loretta Lynch and I can hear your head exploding already from the idea of her sitting on SCOTUS. :)
 
Yes. I am saying that currently the GOP, particularly the base, are far, far, far more distant from the center of the political spectrum of this nation than virtually any other political coalition in the nation. It's also the primary reason I left the GOP.
 
Damocles said:
LOL. That would be true if the "will of the people" elected Democrats to run the Senate. The "will of the people" have pretty much ensured that this is a campaign issue because whoever gets elected will nominate the next SCOTUS Justice.
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Not necessarily. What if the GOP leaders in the Senate decide that they could get a more centrist nominee prior to the 2016 election than after? If either Cruz or Trump win the nomination their is a very high probability that would happen.
 
Damocles said:
I doubt that. If that happens I see the Senate also turning; those people voting for HillBillary or Feeling the Bern will also be voting for Ds in the Senate.

The longest stretch without a nominee being consented to by the Senate was 2 years between Taylor's last 2 years and Polk getting a nominee elected. I do predict that there will be no confirmation of any nominee until the next President is inaugurated. I would also say that the next President will have a nominee confirmed. This one has already had his last successful nomination.

I predict an Obama nominee, because that is good politics, and a rejection (also good politics). Then we'll see what the nation has to say about the President that will actually be able to select the next nominee. I don't know what will happen or who will get elected because this changes the whole election in a less predictable fashion. Both sides will be energized huge. This will be an EPIC election.
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I'd agree with that assessment unless Cruz or Trump win the GOP nomination. If that happens I think that as long as Obama hasn't nominated a candidate who lacks the qualifications or is to far outside the political mainstream that the Senate will confirm that nominee on the basis of that it will be a lot better pill to swallow than the possible nominee after the election.
 
cawacko said:
Maybe it's already been discussed but a number of Republican Senators are up for re-election from Blue states. Quite the challenging position for them.
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In deed it is. Twenty four GOP senators will be defending their seats. Seven of those in States that voted Democrat in the last Presidential election. The polling data shows Portman and Strickland are running competitive campaigns but also show Strickland to have a winning margin outside the margin of error.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Not necessarily. What if the GOP leaders in the Senate decide that they could get a more centrist nominee prior to the 2016 election than after? If either Cruz or Trump win the nomination their is a very high probability that would happen.
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The last thing this country needs is a court stacked either left or right. Scalia was the conservatives conservative in his opinions- we need one just like him. This may shock you, but when Ginsberg goes, my thoughts are we need to replace her similarly.
 
Thing1 said:
Don't forget about good ol' ticket splitters.

I think the GOP is winning this year regardless. Sanders is way too far left, and Hillary has such a low ceiling, especially w/ the legal stuff.

I really reject some of the arguments I've heard already that because it's Scalia, they need to hold out to appoint a conservative to "retain the balance." If the next President is a Republican & a 2-termer, it's not like they might not have an opportunity to replace a liberal or 2 on the court.
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The numbers don't support your argument. The numbers clearly show that either Sanders or Clinton would defeat Trump and would crush Cruz. Bush doesn't fair much better though the data shows he would be very competitive against Sanders it also shows clearly he would lose to Clinton. That leaves three long shots to win the GOP nomination. Kasich, Rubio and Carson.

I honestly think Kasich is the GOP's only hope of salvaging disaster in this election cycle. A Bush nomination could stem some of the bleeding but the GOP would almost certainly lose the White House if Bush runs against Clinton.
 
cawacko said:
I know ILA will disagree with me but I don't think Cruz can win a national election. (I also don't think Sanders can win one so if they faced each other I guess someone would have to win.) Cruz just has too limited an appeal to (conservative) evangelical voters. There aren't enough of them to win nationally. Now again if it were Cruz-Hillary someone would have to win.
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No...most of the data clearly shows that Sanders would defeat either Cruz or Trump. He may be a throwback to the social welfare state New Deal liberals but he's far more palatable than a bigot (Trump) or an extremist ideologue who isn't even liked by his own colleagues (Cruz). I don't think Sanders could beat a main stream GOP candidate but your BS'ing yourself that he couldn't defeat Cruz or Trump in a national election. In the current crop I'd vote for Bernie in a heart beat over Trump or Cruz....those are the only two I'd vote for Bernie against but I'd do it without reservation.
 
Five Thirty Eight has a Clinton / Trump SC victory. Sanders is toast after SC. Hillary will be crippled. Cruz and Rubio need to figure shit out or we will be running Trump.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
No...most of the data clearly shows that Sanders would defeat either Cruz or Trump. He may be a throwback to the social welfare state New Deal liberals but he's far more palatable than a bigot (Trump) or an extremist ideologue who isn't even liked by his own colleagues (Cruz). I don't think Sanders could beat a main stream GOP candidate but your BS'ing yourself that he couldn't defeat Cruz or Trump in a national election. In the current crop I'd vote for Bernie in a heart beat over Trump or Cruz....those are the only two I'd vote for Bernie against but I'd do it without reservation.
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Dude, you are taking today's polls like they are etched in stone.
 
J Craft said:
Five Thirty Eight has a Clinton / Trump SC victory. Sanders is toast after SC. Hillary will be crippled. Cruz and Rubio need to figure shit out or we will be running Trump.
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Things may change but I think that results in President Clinton!
 
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