## WEREWOLF: RED EDITION (Start date: 11/14)

[Vlad the Impaler]

next 5.












6. some throw away post when I asked if everyone was going to act like dopes all day long
7. he says "butter my butt and call me a biscuit (?)" when msanna says earl may be a wolf.
8. he calls ivan and blacksmith wolves, he then lynches blacksmith
9. here is where it gets weird. he now starts tunneling bob because bob floated clems name, and also because bob was doubting ivan. while at the same time, clem has said ivan was wolfy in the past.
10. "so we both agree on ivan", "i think ivan is a wolf and bob is a wolf trying to act like a crazy villager"

It looks to me like the wolves were trying to save Ivan, but then they would have just as likely killed me.

 

[Vlad the Impaler]

He hasn't posted much, but he did post the long list of who he thought were the biggest 'threats'... that is helpful to a village... again, by no means does this alleviate all previous suspicions of him, but it did give me pause.

A wolf would not post a list of who he considers a "threat"?

 

[Niche Political Commentor]

last 7:

If you want to weaken the village then so be it.

I have given my three wolf reads already. No need to do it again.

Why do you keep asking for only top three villagers? That seems suspicious to me.

But if wear wolves doesn't vote it is a mod kill right?

Well I am sure Village Idiot, Vlad and of course myself are villagers. Having my doubts about you though.

I believe Bob is trying to sow confusion along the village.

I also believe Ivan is a wolf and Bob called him out to throw us off the scent.

Notice how Bob really isn't trying to help the village?

Unlynch Bob the Blacksmith


Lynch Serendipity

This does not remove my suspicions about Bob. Just that we need Village unity tonight. So with 12 minutes to go it looks like Serendipity is our first unless something changes.

Wear wolves still hasn't posted

11. i put him in a list of 6 for potential wagons, that was his response to me
12. calls me suspicious for asking him questions about making top 3's for villagers
13. asking me a question about how modkills work
14. says he's sure about idiot, vlad, and himself being villagers. doubts about earl.
15. still is calling ivan a wolf, saying bob is trying to sow discord
16. finally decides to lynch serendipity
17. the last thing he says is that his lynch doesn't remove his suspicions about bob

 

[Sponge Bob]

A wolf would not post a list of who he considers a "threat"?

They may, which again is why I said it by no means clears him or any such thing. Hopefully both of the wolves are doing so. it is easier to trip them up later if they are. Which again is why we want to force everyone to do so.

Your attempts to link yourself up with Cornelius is also interesting.

 

[Sponge Bob]

Bob is oddly quiet today, especially after yesterdays 40+ posts of nonsense.

Werewolf has yet to make an appearance.

Idiot and Ivan are also very quiet today.

 

[Vlad the Impaler]

One theory on Ivan is that he is in real life away from computer access during the working hours, he posts in the morning and then again in the evening. I feel he is a wolf, but that would explain his absence yesterday and today.

 

[Vlad the Impaler]

last 7:















11. i put him in a list of 6 for potential wagons, that was his response to me
12. calls me suspicious for asking him questions about making top 3's for villagers
13. asking me a question about how modkills work
14. says he's sure about idiot, vlad, and himself being villagers. doubts about earl.
15. still is calling ivan a wolf, saying bob is trying to sow discord
16. finally decides to lynch serendipity
17. the last thing he says is that his lynch doesn't remove his suspicions about bob

I agree with him and am also very suspicious of Bob.

 

[Sponge Bob]

One theory on Ivan is that he is in real life away from computer access during the working hours, he posts in the morning and then again in the evening. I feel he is a wolf, but that would explain his absence yesterday and today.

true... something that can happen to most of us at some point in the game.

Did we decide if we are playing the weekend or skipping it?

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Have to drive to my dad's, will be gone for an hour or two. Should be back in time to monitor the last hour or two of posts.

 

[Niche Political Commentor]

I guess why I found clem's kill a little weird is that he is calling ivan a wolf all day pretty definitively but at the same time put his vote on bob and in his last post before night he takes the opportunity to remind everyone specifically about bob. If you are the wolf team and you are seer hunting, you may be thinking that is sending mixed messages.

So if ivan is a wolf, how spooked does he get in this spot?

That's not a rhetorical question.

On the flip side, the wolves as I mentioned earlier made their kill pretty quick (especially given the fact that serendipity had just died). To comb through the entire thread, look for peeks, read peoples interactions, debate among yourselves as a wolf team, and then send in the pick seems like it would take more than 90 minutes to me. It's been taking me almost 90 minutes to write out all these posts JUST focusing on clem. I can only assume then that they were semi-cocksure of themselves who they wanted to kill before nightfall.

So if we are to look over the reasons I stipulated earlier why a wolf team makes their kill:

If it was a seer hunt, it's probably because wolves thought he peeked ivan. Even though clem was on bob a lot, clem seemed to be speaking more definitively about ivan throughout the day.

Bob could theoretically have a small % chance of being a wolf that got spooked, but personally I have thought he's seemed more like a spazzy villager so far, and serendipity also voted for bob at one point which I think helps clear bob a bit.

I don't think he was killed because he was "most clear" out of all the villagers. I think people have been throwing my name, sponges, and a few others around as being clear villagers over clem.

The last possibility was that it was a deceptive kill by the wolves to generate a mislynch today. This however doesn't make a lot of sense to me though as ivan was getting pushed yesterday already and so was bob, so that seems like it would be wasted effort on the part of the wolf team. (and with a wolf down you think you'd be really driven to find the seer, the exception being if the wolf team is kind of newbie-ish).

As of now, I think the best conclusion we can draw from that is that wolf team probably thought ivan was a peek and that the wolves were seer hunting.

 

[IVAN CHESNOKOV]

A wolf would not post a list of who he considers a "threat"?

IS LESS HELPFUL TO WOLVES TO VOICE OPINION. IS EASY FOR WOLF TO GET TRAPPED BY WORDS LATER AS WOLF KNOWS WHO IS WHO FOR MOST PART. IVAN THINKS IS BEST TO AVOID MAJOR NIGHT, SHOULD GET MOST WKRDS IN AIR BY ALL PARTIES.

 

[Niche Political Commentor]

going over serendipity's posts now.

 

[IVAN CHESNOKOV]

One theory on Ivan is that he is in real life away from computer access during the working hours, he posts in the morning and then again in the evening. I feel he is a wolf, but that would explain his absence yesterday and today.

NO, IVAN GONE FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT OF TIME DURING SIMILAR TIME PERIOD FOR 2 DAYS NOW, CANNOT BE BECAUSE OF JOB OR TIME DIFFRANCE. IS CLEARLY SUSPICION. BRILLIANT. IVAN THINKS VILLAGE IDIOT MISNAMED HIMSELF.

 

[IVAN CHESNOKOV]

WHAT ARE CHANCES ALL WOLF ARMY IS GREEN AS CUCUMBER? CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE, BUT TO IVAN SEEMS UNLIKELY. IVAN AGAIN SEE CORNELIUS TRYING TO DRIVE ALL DISCUSSION IN DIRECTION HE CHOOSES.

 

[Niche Political Commentor]

he made 18 posts.

This is the first 7

I am here.

which are the two?

Waiting for more info and tells.

I have been biding my time watching others, I pick Bob as he is very vocal and it seems to be a diversionary tactic.

Bob has it in for me for some reason, I guess he likes killing villagers.

I think you are right about village idiot and wear wolves is very suspicious, could just be laziness though.

As for Ivan who can tell.

1-3. being standoffish not saying anything
4. This post is actually very very interesting. At this point, the following things occurred in the thread:

(these posts took place over an hour):
#113 I called him out basically calling him useless, saying he needs to make reads
#116 sponge puts seren at the top of their vote list
#119 sponge votes seren
#132 I make a giant master post saying that serendipity would be a good wagon.

Ten minutes later, serendipity makes his post saying he picks bob as being wolfy, which is what I quoted above.

Now let me ask you, when you are serendipity, and you have now had in the span of an hour 2 posters putting heavy heat on you, one voting for you and another suggesting you as the top wagon, ARE YOU REALLY going to point out bob is a wolf in this spot if bob is your wolf team mate?

Assuming bob is a wolf and you are serendipity, are you REALLY trying to get two wolf wagons going on d1?

I think that is unlikely.

5. talks about bob some more.
6. says village idiot and werwolves are suspicious. Does he mention both his wolf teammates in this grouping? probably not. village idiot and wear wolves are unlikely to be w/w. Small thing to notice.
7. noncommittal statement about ivan that gives zero info away.

 

[IVAN CHESNOKOV]

HERE IS TOP 5 POSTERS

WEAPONSMITH BOB
CORNELIUS
PINEAPPLE SPONGE
BUTTZ
FAKE SLAV

IVAN FEEL AT LEAST ONE IS WOLF. MAYBE BOTH, BUT SO FAR SEEM UNLIKELY.

 

[Sponge Bob]

HERE IS TOP 5 POSTERS

WEAPONSMITH BOB
CORNELIUS
PINEAPPLE SPONGE
BUTTZ
FAKE SLAV

IVAN FEEL AT LEAST ONE IS WOLF. MAYBE BOTH, BUT SO FAR SEEM UNLIKELY.

you think there is one or both wolves in that list? Based on the fact that we are posting the most? Interesting.

I am pretty certain that unless Cornelius is the most skilled wolf player ever, he is a villager. Dissecting Clem and Serendipity's posts is very helpful to the village.

 

[Niche Political Commentor]

next posts 8-13:

I think it is unlikely that all three or even two wolves would be newbies so it is revolves around who posts like an old hand and who doesn't. My picks for wolves are SpongeBob, who is incredibly vocal and delights in throwing people off the scent, Village Idiot and a dice roll between Msanna and Clem.

Top villagers are Earl Butz and Vlad.

Alternately it is the truth.

LYNCH VILLAGE IDIOT

Yeh, it means happy accident. Haven't you ever had any of those?

You seem determined to lynch me, well be it on your own head.

8. he says spongebob, village idiot, and a dice roll between msanna and clem are the wolf team. The interesting thing about this post is now seren at this point in the game knows he is a viable wagon possibility. Which means he knows people will be analyzing what he is saying when he's dead. My personal hunch here is that a wolf in this spot isn't just going to get a list of 4 villagers and call them all potential wolves. He's probably going to throw at least one wolf teammate onto that list for balance. Of that list, sponge is definitely a villager. Clem we all know came back villager. So that leaves it between village idiot and msanna assuming there is a wolf on a list of 4 that seren is throwing out. Village idiot was the second person to vote serendipity so truthfully IF seren put a wolf on his list in this post, it's most likely msanna. that's the way I lean anyway.

9. says top villagers are earl and vlad. It's a shorter list than the one above which means it would be harder to hide a wolf on it. I have a small lean that this probably truthful. Just a gut thing.

10. he randomly votes village idiot now. Again, we need to pay attention to the fact that at this point in the game, seren knows there is at least a possibility he may be lynched, so we can either interpret this as just a spazzy village spew, or he's trying to make it seem like he is really anti-village idiot.

11. I spelled his name wrong (actually I have auto correct and everytime I type serendipity it tries to make it serenity -_-

12. he says I am determined to lynch him.

 

[Sponge Bob]

Thanks for the analysis... given that msanna has been tweaking wolf to me today, the above lends more reason and rationale to that gut feeling. I am pretty sure Ivan is the third wolf (msanna being #2)... but lets see what happens as we go. Hopefully the seer can peek one of them if they haven't already.

 

[Sponge Bob]

Cornelius... since you seem adept at analysis, take a look at msanna's post #356... how does that strike you?