IVAN CHESNOKOV
HERO OF SOCIALIST LABOR
IVAN THINKS IS ONE WOLF IN LIST, BUT IS POSSIBLE FOR BITH. STILL ONE IS MOST LIKELY. TO IVAN THAT IS STILL CORNELIUS.
## WEREWOLF: RED EDITION (Start date: 11/14)
- Thread starter FUCK THE POLICE
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IVAN THINKS IS ONE WOLF IN LIST, BUT IS POSSIBLE FOR BITH. STILL ONE IS MOST LIKELY. TO IVAN THAT IS STILL CORNELIUS.
Bob the Brawny Blacksmith
Defender of the Village
Bob is back from helping family member have leaches put on arms and legs.
Bob has noticed the Sponge Bob is always asking who other villagers think are the night wolves; but he rarely speaks of who he is suspecting.
This seems odd to Bob and now Cornelius is once again missing.
Bob the Brawny Blacksmith
Defender of the Village
Bob is beginning to more and more convinced that this is exactly what happened.
Two older experienced night wolves sacrificed new weak night wolf, to draw attention away from themselves.
Sponge Bob
Verified User
You really think Cornelius is that good? To go to the detail of dissecting the posts of the two people killed yesterday, which helps the village? The only scenario this makes sense in is that he is the third wolf, msanna is the second and he is trying to protect himself. But in that case if the wolves don't kill the seer, he could be peeked for verification. It would be a very risky play for a wolf and only a very very skilled player could pull it off.
Bob the Brawny Blacksmith
Defender of the Village
ok. lots of things to talk about today.
I have briefly skimmed some peoples posts and I am glad to see a lot of villager lists are looking pretty solid.
There are a few things we need to discuss though, namely among them is the clem kill. Cause I have to tell you, I find it really odd. Especially since it was given so relatively quick. Once serendipity is dead, you think the wolves would really take their time. Given that it was only 90 minutes from end of day until watermark posted the kill, it implies to me they had a very strong confident idea in killing clem, or a short list throughout the day of who they wanted dead.
anyway, here are a list of things I intend to go over today (hopefully within the hour if I am quick about it)
1. The main motives of wolf night kills. Many of you already know the main reasons, but this round we have a lot of new players between I love america, dion, essence, jarod, and I think maybe one other, so I think it's good to just do a brief rehash.
2. Next thing is to go over ALL of clams posts and see if there are any conclusions we can draw from them or why the wolves might have killed him
3. We need to go over all of serendipity's posts to see if he spewed anybody village or a wolf in how he interacted with people
4.We need to look at bandwagons at the end of the day, especially in the last hour or so. Who was on which wagon? Who jumped and when? Who was off the serendipity wagon? who was on it at good valuable times where we can draw inferences?
5. Then I will start reading everyone's responses in thread
6. After all that, we propose a strategy for today going forward.
Bob is becoming more wary of Cornelius; because now this one is acting like he's in charge.
Kind of like a night wolf leader would do.
Sponge Bob
Verified User
Then you are indeed our village idiot. I have posted numerous times who I think is a villager and a wolf... and cornelius has been here more than you and actually helping the village.
Again... I think Cornelius is the closest to sure villager that we have at this point. Village idiot I believe is a villager as well, though I would like to see him post more. Earl and Vlad same thing, likely village, but less sure on these two. More posting would help. You I think are the true village idiot, but I do think you are a villager who is spazzy and doesn't know how to play this game.
Wolves... Msanna is my current vote to lynch. After Cornelius's analysis of Serendipity, I fell stronger in this conviction. I encourage you to read post #356 of his to get your reaction to it. Ivan is number two on my list at this point. While he did post a list of what he thought, he is beginning to tweak wolf again today as his list of people who posted the most he thinks has a wolf or two in it.
Sponge Bob
Verified User
You seriously think a wolf would try to lead the village through an analysis of the posts of the two people killed? To encourage the village to look hard at them?
Niche Political Commentor
Wear a mask
posts 14-18
14-15:
16:
17:
18:
14-15. THIS SPOT IS ABSOLUTELY MOTHERFUCKING CRUCIAL SO EVERYONE PAY ATTENTION. THIS IS WHY MULTI-WAGONS ARE SO IMPORTANT:
Here is the vote count at #253 where serendipity tries to first vote bob by not underlining, and then getting in his vote for real:
2 on Ivan
2 on bob
2 on serendipity.
serendipity made posts 14-15 at 6:16, watermark posted the vote count at 6:10, and serendipity acknowledged my vote at 6:09 for ivan in post #241 (
So this means that when seren voted, it wasn't just like he refreshed the page and threw a vote out. He HAD to know what the totals were. He acknowledge my vote for ivan, he had time to see watermarks vote count for 6 minutes, then he casts his vote for bob.
So let me ask you all the million dollar question.
If bob is a wolf, and ivan is a villager, WHY THE FUCK would seren vote for bob in that spot?
If we were to assume bob is a wolf, serendipity would be pretty fucking dumb to cast his vote on bob, and leave it on bob, ensuring a wolf wolf wagon. He would instead cast it on ivan (assuming ivan were villager).
The fact that seren is voting bob in this spot when he could have chosen ivan instead should help go a LONG way in clearing bob. And when you take the nightkill of clem into account, it only makes ivan look that much more guilty that seren passed over ivan. The only time this analysis wouldn't matter is if both bob and ivan are wolves, in which case ivan is still a good lynch today.
16. still saying bob is a wolf when ivan is still a potential wagon possibility.
17. justifying his bob vote because he doesn't think village idiot would be a wolf?
18. says we are about to kill a villager when we start lynching serendipity.
Bob should be pretty clear from this end of day interaction. imo.
14-15:
16:
17:
18:
14-15. THIS SPOT IS ABSOLUTELY MOTHERFUCKING CRUCIAL SO EVERYONE PAY ATTENTION. THIS IS WHY MULTI-WAGONS ARE SO IMPORTANT:
Here is the vote count at #253 where serendipity tries to first vote bob by not underlining, and then getting in his vote for real:
2 on Ivan
2 on bob
2 on serendipity.
serendipity made posts 14-15 at 6:16, watermark posted the vote count at 6:10, and serendipity acknowledged my vote at 6:09 for ivan in post #241 (
So this means that when seren voted, it wasn't just like he refreshed the page and threw a vote out. He HAD to know what the totals were. He acknowledge my vote for ivan, he had time to see watermarks vote count for 6 minutes, then he casts his vote for bob.
So let me ask you all the million dollar question.
If bob is a wolf, and ivan is a villager, WHY THE FUCK would seren vote for bob in that spot?
If we were to assume bob is a wolf, serendipity would be pretty fucking dumb to cast his vote on bob, and leave it on bob, ensuring a wolf wolf wagon. He would instead cast it on ivan (assuming ivan were villager).
The fact that seren is voting bob in this spot when he could have chosen ivan instead should help go a LONG way in clearing bob. And when you take the nightkill of clem into account, it only makes ivan look that much more guilty that seren passed over ivan. The only time this analysis wouldn't matter is if both bob and ivan are wolves, in which case ivan is still a good lynch today.
16. still saying bob is a wolf when ivan is still a potential wagon possibility.
17. justifying his bob vote because he doesn't think village idiot would be a wolf?
18. says we are about to kill a villager when we start lynching serendipity.
Bob should be pretty clear from this end of day interaction. imo.
Niche Political Commentor
Wear a mask
one strong motive wolves had at the end of the day yesterday is trying to prevent majority night. if they did this, then even if a wolf died there would have been a modkill of wear wolves. (unless wear wolves is just an inactive wolf).
so this is what they would have desired, but on the flip side, it would have made them suspicious if they didn't try to clinch majority. SO I don't know if wolf team would have been actively trying to prevent a majority or not.
so this is what they would have desired, but on the flip side, it would have made them suspicious if they didn't try to clinch majority. SO I don't know if wolf team would have been actively trying to prevent a majority or not.
Niche Political Commentor
Wear a mask
ok I've combed through most relevant posts at this point I am gonna start reading the thread, which I haven't seen a whole lot of yet today.
be aware guys that we need again the possibility of being able to bring about majority night to prevent a modkill. wagons work, but we also need the ability to coalesce like yesterday if need be.
be aware guys that we need again the possibility of being able to bring about majority night to prevent a modkill. wagons work, but we also need the ability to coalesce like yesterday if need be.
Earl Buttz
Amerikan
Well as you know Ivan and msanna are my top two wolfs on my list. msanna tweeked me yesterday. However I do have a strong urge to hang that stupid sheep fucker from Ohio to prevent him from killing the danged village agin.
Default position is to lynch Wear Wolves. He's as worthless as lips on a Woodpecker. The sad part is that the Sheep Shager and Woodpecker lips are probably villagers.
IVAN CHESNOKOV
HERO OF SOCIALIST LABOR
WHO IS MORE SKILLED AT GAME THAN CORNELIUS?
Earl Buttz
Amerikan
Only problem with that Bob is that only wolves with clabber for brains would try that gambit in the first round. The fact that you keep repeatin that is only pingin my wolfdar.
IVAN CHESNOKOV
HERO OF SOCIALIST LABOR
THIS IS HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS TO IVAN. IVAN IS AGAINST MAJORITY NIGHT, BRING AS MUCH INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE TO OPEN. BUT CORNELIUS WISHES NOT ONLY TO DRIVE DISCUSSION, BUT ALSO KEEP OPTION FOR ENDING GAME QUICKLY.
HERE IS WHAT IVAN THINKS. CORNELIUS AND WEAR WOLVES IS WOLF ARMY. CORNELIUS WISHES TO SHELTER INACTIVE WOLF LONG AS POSSIBLE FROM MOD KILL TO KEEP WOLF ARMY STRONG.
Sponge Bob
Verified User
yes, he is skilled... but skilled enough to know that would be a really stupid play on his part.
IVAN CHESNOKOV
HERO OF SOCIALIST LABOR
PERHAPS. WHO ELSE IS PINEAPPLE SPONGE SUSPICION ON?
Earl Buttz
Amerikan
Fellas ole Earl is getting pretty busy here at the ole Dew Drop Inn. Don't know how much more I'll be able to contribute tween now and nightfall. So I figure I'd a better put my lynch vote in and see what happens.
I've had my biggest suspicion of msanna since early yesterday and nutins changed today in that sheepdogs behavior to make me think any different.
Therefore I'ma gonna go with my gut instinct.
Lynch msanna
I've had my biggest suspicion of msanna since early yesterday and nutins changed today in that sheepdogs behavior to make me think any different.
Therefore I'ma gonna go with my gut instinct.
Lynch msanna
Sponge Bob
Verified User
The good news is that I don't think the wolves have a clue who the seer is... which is why it is crucial for everyone to continue posting their thoughts. It allows the seer to continue to reveal hints while gathering a new pick each night the wolves screw up.
I think the way this game is going, the likelihood of a skilled wolf in this game is minimal. a skilled wolf would have given a newbie like serendipity a heads up on how to play the game. He was too easily exposed. I think the greater likelihood is that we have three relative newbies or a combination of newbies and players that suck as the wolves. I could be wrong, but if I were seer, I would certainly be checking out you and Msanna as wolves if that hasn't already happened.
IVAN CHESNOKOV
HERO OF SOCIALIST LABOR
WHAT AMS MOST SUSPICIOUS ABOUT SINGLE ANNA?
Sponge Bob
Verified User
right now msanna is my top candidate and he currently has my vote. You are currently running second.
I am 95% sure Cornelius is village. I think village idiot and Bob are as well. Earl I am less sure, but lean village at this time. I think WW is a dead weight villager. Vlad, like Earl I am uncertain on, but lean village after the analysis by Cornelius on serendipity's posts.
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