recession fear mongers: Economy best in four years
- Thread starter Chapdog
- Start date
Topspin
Verified User
alright here's my opinion please give yours
GDP will continue to grow at 2% to 3% OK but not great not terrible
Housing sucks and will suck for potentially another year or two in my view we'd be at 4% growth with average housing. Fed will lower rates to counter
Inflation is tame at 2% will rise to 3 or 4 as rates get lower.
Consumer spending will continue to carry us as it has for decades. Only now instead of housing, and cars it's tech, electronics and entertainment.
Jobs will grow between 50,000 and 90,000 a month till the rate cuts inflate the economy to much.
What should a smart investor do with this. What you don't buy is almost as important as what you buy.
Me Chevron, but I buy and sell quarterly on seasonality moves.
Avoid airlines and autos
Buy Apple, Microsoft, Google, Japan, BHP, China ETF if you have steel balls. Intel and Cysco are good. Video games but actually I'm too old to tell you the good companies.
GDP will continue to grow at 2% to 3% OK but not great not terrible
Housing sucks and will suck for potentially another year or two in my view we'd be at 4% growth with average housing. Fed will lower rates to counter
Inflation is tame at 2% will rise to 3 or 4 as rates get lower.
Consumer spending will continue to carry us as it has for decades. Only now instead of housing, and cars it's tech, electronics and entertainment.
Jobs will grow between 50,000 and 90,000 a month till the rate cuts inflate the economy to much.
What should a smart investor do with this. What you don't buy is almost as important as what you buy.
Me Chevron, but I buy and sell quarterly on seasonality moves.
Avoid airlines and autos
Buy Apple, Microsoft, Google, Japan, BHP, China ETF if you have steel balls. Intel and Cysco are good. Video games but actually I'm too old to tell you the good companies.
uscitizen
Villified User
Cancel 2016.2
The Almighty
And THERE is your problem Top.... if you think inflation is truly at 2% right now, THAT is where you are making your mistake as to how the economy WILL be (not how it HAS been). Inflation for the average American is running closer to 10%. Their costs of housing, energy, food and healthcare have far outpaced the average inflation (side note: I think the Fed is deliberately understating inflation numbers). If housing continue to fall, then you will see consumer spending dry up and a global recession begin. (starting in the US)
I do agree that the Fed is likely to drop rates to counter housing. They better. That is one of two things that needs to be done to stem the tide of the downturn and possibly keep us in minimal (but positive) growth. The other is re-working as many of these ARMs and I-only's into some sort of fixed rate structure as possible. THEN the Fed has to turn and increase rates again to combat inflation.
if you haven't noticed dollar is tanked.. and the housing crash is fully underway.. all this while the stock market has been doing ok. up and down really.. so next year after elections i predict huge market rallies with GDP in the 4-5's for 09.
note - gut with no basis here.
note - gut with no basis here.
Wow; that's about as far from a "yes" or "no" as I've seen.
My answer is no, the fundamentals of this economy are NOT good. How can you say something like "housing sucks & could potentially suck for another year or 2," and then say in the next sentence, "GDP will stay at 2-3%?", all while admitting that consumer spending is what is propping up the economy?
Housing is crashing, toppy. You know my feelings on this, but I'll repeat them, and I'll speak in small words, so you can try to keep up. Americans are at record levels of debt right now. That's credit card debt, and mortgage debt. You admit that consumer spending has propped up the economy, yet inexplicably conclude that "it will continue to do so," even though Americans are now TAPPED OUT. There is no more to borrow against, because their home values are crashing, and their credit cards are maxed out. Consumer confidence is at its lowest point in 2 years, and I'd be surprised if it didn't continue to fall. The spending-to-keep-up-with-the-neighbors binge is over. Americans for years were spending money that they simply did not have, and that is not sustainable. Now, it's over.
You tried to argue with me that housing is an isolated sector of the market, and doesn't affect other areas of the economy significantly. What ill-informed nonsense. When housing construction slows down, suppliers lose business. When suppliers lose business, manufacturing orders drop. When manufacturing orders drop, laborers lose their jobs. And so on, and so on, and so on. This does not happen overnight, but you act like if it doesn't, you were "right."
The fundamentals of this economy are definitely not sound. There is no precedent for the kind of unsupportable spending/borrowing binge that America just enjoyed, which is why concern is high over the ramifications.
Cancel 2016.2
The Almighty
IF (and thats a big IF) the fed acts aggressively to curb the problems in housing, then I agree with your predictions for 2009. If they wuss around and stretch out the rate cuts over 6-12 months, then it will be 2010 before we swing positive (at the earliest)
Topspin
Verified User
Her is where your head get shoved up your ass yet again.
You spewed the same shit a year ago and yet the economy is growing at 3.5%
Why. Housing is taking only 1% off GDP.
And here the thing I keep schooling you on. Wait for it, Wait for it.
Wealth is up. BAM. Only someone not trained in economics or business would run with the 6 oclock news analysis you spew or is it move on.org.
incomes are up more than debt.
I hope your under 40 and will soon become and investor.
Granted it's concentrated in the top 20% and will continue too.
The top 1/3 net worth is way up this year and last as well.
You spewed the same shit a year ago and yet the economy is growing at 3.5%
Why. Housing is taking only 1% off GDP.
And here the thing I keep schooling you on. Wait for it, Wait for it.
Wealth is up. BAM. Only someone not trained in economics or business would run with the 6 oclock news analysis you spew or is it move on.org.
incomes are up more than debt.
I hope your under 40 and will soon become and investor.
Granted it's concentrated in the top 20% and will continue too.
The top 1/3 net worth is way up this year and last as well.
ugh......that wasn't cool. I need to reevaluate my entire outlook on life now.
"Her is where your head get shoved up your ass yet again.
You spewed the same shit a year ago and yet the economy is growing at 3.5%
Why. Housing is taking only 1% off GDP."
Gimme a break. Everything I was telling you is coming to fruition. If anything, events have completely vindicated everything I told you.
When we started this conversation, housing was still inflating. I, and pretty much everyone else, knew this was unsustainable, and would eventually crash, and you called me (and by extension, everyone else), a gerber chicken little cold caller.
Housing has taken a fall this year. And you're talking about THIRD QUARTER results. Again, everything takes time to filter out to the rest of the economy, tops - how can you not understand that? If it's not an instant result with you, it's dismissed. You have such a simplistic understanding of this.
Even in the article Chap posted, it warned of gloomier times to come. That's because the FULL effects of the housing crash are just starting to be felt.
This is exhausting. I can't teach you this stuff, and if you don't know it by now, you're not gonna get it.
You spewed the same shit a year ago and yet the economy is growing at 3.5%
Why. Housing is taking only 1% off GDP."
Gimme a break. Everything I was telling you is coming to fruition. If anything, events have completely vindicated everything I told you.
When we started this conversation, housing was still inflating. I, and pretty much everyone else, knew this was unsustainable, and would eventually crash, and you called me (and by extension, everyone else), a gerber chicken little cold caller.
Housing has taken a fall this year. And you're talking about THIRD QUARTER results. Again, everything takes time to filter out to the rest of the economy, tops - how can you not understand that? If it's not an instant result with you, it's dismissed. You have such a simplistic understanding of this.
Even in the article Chap posted, it warned of gloomier times to come. That's because the FULL effects of the housing crash are just starting to be felt.
This is exhausting. I can't teach you this stuff, and if you don't know it by now, you're not gonna get it.
