Recession

Based on the Atlanta Fed projections, second Qtr GDP is expected to come in negative later this week. That would be two consecutive qtrs of negative growth, generally the benchmark we use to say we are in a recession. (Not the only one however.)

So it's really interesting to see the debate playing out, if these negative numbers are correct, as to whether we are in a recession. One side is arguing this has always been the rule and now you are changing the definition or the other side saying with the funky post COVID economy GDP numbers aren't telling the whole story and thus we aren't in a recession. We'll find out.
 
Cypress said:
Recession may not come after all, economists say

-- Economic strength defies forecasts of downturn but risks remain, experts said --

As recession forecasts have grown dire in recent months, they've faced one complication: Strong economic data.

The U.S. showed robust job growth last month, defying expectations of a slowdown and keeping the unemployment rate at a near-historic low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, retail spending, a key indicator of economic health that reflects consumer appetite, rose 1% in June, outpacing gloomier predictions -- even if some of that increase can be attributed to rising prices due to inflation.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/us-economy-avoid-recession-economists/story?id=86449369
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"Put that recession talk away, and change the subject. A vibecession ain’t no recession: July payrolls came in at a huge +528k, and unemployment is down to 3.46%, the lowest in half a century." --> Economist Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan

"Amazing job growth, strong & sustainable wage growth, and slowing inflation: WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION.” --> Economist David Rothschild

More jobs created during the Biden presidency than the last three Republican administrations added up together
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Stagflation is out, Goldilocks is in’: Jefferies’ chief financial economist says the economy will be ‘stronger for longer’—but only to a point

I don't buy this idea that a recession is imminent, but I do think a recession is inevitable,” Markowska told Fortune.

On Monday, Jefferies’ chief financial economist, Aneta Markowska, argued that the U.S. will avoid a 1970s stagflation rerun over the coming quarters.

“It’s time to scrap the recession narrative and replace it with ‘stronger for longer.’ Stagflation is out, Goldilocks is in,” she wrote in a research note.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), moved to a fresh four-decade high of 9.1% in June, but Markowska believes falling commodity prices and healing supply chains will help to reduce sky-high consumer prices over the next three to six months.

That should “set the stage” for a rebound in consumer spending, causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise over 3% in the third quarter, she said. That would be quite the turnaround after GDP contracted in the first and second quarters, leaving many to question whether the U.S. is already in the midst of a recession.

Markowska went on to argue that this week’s CPI data will show that June was the peak for U.S. inflation, meaning the Federal Reserve will be able to slow the pace of its aggressive interest rate hikes through the end of the year

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortun...lation-come-down-economy-stronger-longer/amp/
 
Flash said:
The best economists always use Breitbart for their economic news;)
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I had the same thought. To each his own of course but I’ve seen people post economic news on here from rawstory and now Breibart. Not two sources I’d recommend for that info.
 
Lionfish said:
Don't need Breitbart,

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"
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Nope -->


There’s No US Recession Until an Obscure Panel of ‘Eggheads’ Says It Is So

-- In US, two negative GDP quarters isn’t an official recession --

While many countries define an economic downturn as two consecutive quarters of negative growth for gross domestic product, the US defers this assessment to elite academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whose leaders scoff at the two-quarter benchmark as simplistic and misleading.

Rather than two negative GDP readings, the NBER is looking for a substantial decline in activity over a sustained period of time. The committee sets dates of the peaks of economic activity and troughs based on six monthly data series, including nonfarm payrolls, personal consumption spending and industrial production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...until-obscure-panel-of-eggheads-says-it-is-so
 
Lionfish said:
Don't need Breitbart,

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"
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Now Bill Clinton is a trusted authority? Don't look at biased news sources or former presidents. Read the description from people who make those decisions.

Two quarters of economic growth is usually considered the benchmark for a recession but not entirely.

Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

There is a big difference between the negative growth of two consecutive quarters in 2020 and 2022.

2020
Q1: -3.9
Q2: -32.4

2022
Q1: -1.6
Q2: -0.9
 
cawacko said:
I had the same thought. To each his own of course but I’ve seen people post economic news on here from rawstory and now Breibart. Not two sources I’d recommend for that info.
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Using those sources (rawstory, inforwars, altnet, townhall) explains why some of our posters hold the views they do. We now have a new conspiracy theory--Trump is being "framed" by the search of his home.
 
Lionfish said:
Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"
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So what is the Conservative plan to fight the recession? Because the only plan the GOP has is Rick Scott's plan to end Medicare and Social Security, and it's unclear how ending those would end a recession and not prolong it.
 
Flash said:
Using those sources (rawstory, inforwars, altnet, townhall) explains why some of our posters hold the views they do. We now have a new conspiracy theory--Trump is being "framed" by the search of his home.
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After the execution of the search warrant, the target of the search warrant is given a list of everything taken from the residence...so if it's such a political hit job, why not just show the world what it is they took from you and how wrong it was that they did?
 
Cypress said:
Nope -->


There’s No US Recession Until an Obscure Panel of ‘Eggheads’ Says It Is So

-- In US, two negative GDP quarters isn’t an official recession --

While many countries define an economic downturn as two consecutive quarters of negative growth for gross domestic product, the US defers this assessment to elite academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whose leaders scoff at the two-quarter benchmark as simplistic and misleading.

Rather than two negative GDP readings, the NBER is looking for a substantial decline in activity over a sustained period of time. The committee sets dates of the peaks of economic activity and troughs based on six monthly data series, including nonfarm payrolls, personal consumption spending and industrial production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...until-obscure-panel-of-eggheads-says-it-is-so
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The MAGA contingent has been yelling at me for the past 20 months that Joe Biden is right on the cusp of driving us into a deep recession, or even depression.
 
LV426 said:
So what is the Conservative plan to fight the recession? Because the only plan the GOP has is Rick Scott's plan to end Medicare and Social Security, and it's unclear how ending those would end a recession and not prolong it.
Click to expand...

The solution is simple, Go back and undo every single executive order signed by Brandon. You lefties can piss and moan all day but none of this occurred under Trump.
When you state that you are basically going to put the majority entire country's energy system out of business, you have fucked up bigely.
 
Flash said:
Using those sources (rawstory, inforwars, altnet, townhall) explains why some of our posters hold the views they do. We now have a new conspiracy theory--Trump is being "framed" by the search of his home.
Click to expand...

I guess it's the chicken and egg thing; do they hold the views they do because of these sites or do they go to the sites because of the views they already hold?

One excuse you'll hear from those posting economic info from rawstory or Breibart is that they use/are quoting data from other sources. If that's the case then why not post that original data? These partisan sites may reference a poll or data from other sources but then give some false spin/narrative to it and misuse the data. Seen it too many times.
 
Note to all you alt-lefties attempting to redefine a recession. Go fuck yourself. The definition was set in place decades ago and all the twisting anf turning winn change none of it. Arguing further is senseless
 
Lionfish said:
The solution is simple, Go back and undo every single executive order signed by Brandon. You lefties can piss and moan all day but none of this occurred under Trump.
When you state that you are basically going to put the majority entire country's energy system out of business, you have fucked up bigely.
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None of what happened under Trump? We had a -3.4 decline in GDP growth in 2020, 13.3% unemployment rate, 20 million lost jobs.

And yes, Trump did not cause this--it would have happened under any president just like the current situation was not caused by Biden and would have also happened under Trump. U. S. oil production is growing and we are still a net exporter of petroleum products. None of those executive orders had any real effect on oil production.
 
cawacko said:
I guess it's the chicken and egg thing; do they hold the views they do because of these sites or do they go to the sites because of the views they already hold?
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They go there because of the views they already hold, but they get all their new information from those sources which leads to a continued build-up of biased information.

Some happen upon certain sources which then shape their views. I know one person who was apolitical and became religious and started listening to religions music on the radio. The religious station also has news programming. When they told me they were concerned that Obama was going to declare martial law and cancel the 2016 election I realized how the news source shaped their opinion. Since the news programming also had religious content it was more believable (trustworthy).
 
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