A Challenge that excludes public polls
- Thread starter An Orange Cat
- Start date
evince
Truthmatters
evince
Truthmatters
Really don't care. I judge by what I see.
Lincoln lost the election to Douglas. Douglas was the incumbent.
evince
Truthmatters
The Lincoln-Douglas debates didn’t sway that election. Douglas was running for his 3rd term and beat Lincoln.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Well, depending on how you spin it, the Keys to the White House system that has generally been correct in the past--it isn't a poll--says Biden has a shot or he's totally doomed.
The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
If you look at the embedded table for 2024, Allen Lichtman says Biden is likely to win. But he credits as true the following categories that can easily be argued, and proven, as false:
Strong short and long term economy (2 categories). Given that about 2 out of 3 Americans say the economy sucks says these are false, not true as Lichtman claims. If you are in the upper middle class or above, the economy is doing fine for you. For the other two thirds of Americans, it is rife with high prices, high inflation, and unaffordable goods.
Lichtman credits "Major policy change" as true. This is patently false. Build Back Better and the Infrastructure bill are spending bills and little more. Biden has had no major policy changes that are positive. In fact, the opposite could be argued on immigration, the whole Green agenda, and much more.
No social unrest. This is on the fence as the Israel - Gaza war could flare up in more protests easily. Illegal immigration is another area that could easily see greater social unrest.
No scandal. This is on the fence too. Biden and the Hunter laptop / quid pro quo thing could drop a bomb on his campaign at any time. Illegal immigration is a scandal. Selling off the SPR is another. There's plenty of these that could become more serious in a day.
No major foreign military failure: False, not true. Start with Afghanistan. Then toss in Ukraine. Then there's the Israeli-Gaza war. Biden's not batting 1000 on this one.
Major military success. False too. Biden isn't going to get a popular war.
No third party. Toss up at this point. How much RFK jr will hurt the Democrats--he isn't drawing much in the way of Trump supporters--is yet to be seen.
This version has Biden with three keys out of a minimum of six needed for a win in this system with virtually no hope of getting any more between now and November.
Lincoln fucking lost the election, dude. Do some fucking homework.
And, there WAS mass media. Transcripts were printed in newspapers within hours of the debates. The telegraph got it everywhere within hours, as well.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Yes, they did. Lincoln got 54% of the vote, but the legislature appointed Douglas to the Senate regardless.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Wrong on all counts. Newpapers back then were local, not national, and the telegraph sent short, limited, messages.
LINCOLN. FUCKING. LOST
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Lincoln won the vote but lost the state electoral vote. The debates however put him on a national stage to winning the Presidency in the next election.
If you did any fucking homework, you would know that the debates became national media attention. The press traveled extensively with the candidates and transcripts were often on their way to Chicago even before each debate had finished.
Fucktard, you claimed the debates swayed the election. They didn’t. The incumbent won and the challenger lost. Why is that difficult for you to understand?
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
They did. The vote swung in favor of Lincoln, but the electoral vote went to Douglas. Sort of the same sort of thing that happened with Trump v. the Hildabeast.
None.
Biden is roundly hated and scoffed at - even here in far left California.
Biden is the most unpopular presidentish in history.
America can't stand him or his disastrous policies.
Not recently.
Trump has a massive following - Biden is at best tolerated by the left.
You dream.
ROFL - you just make shit up, huh?
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
You Stalinists are as delusional as you are stupid.
It won't be close. Biden has no chance at all.
My guess is that your party is going to kill Biden in order to replace him with Harris. Even that won't work - Trump will be President again and restore sanity to the Nation.
When Quid Pro dies unexpectedly in the next couple of months - see if you have just a nagging feeling that runs contrary to your programming. That maybe your party did it to try and salvage this failed presidency.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
I'm not worried about Joe Biden because he has a perfectly capable technocrat as his Vice President.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
Yes, things have gotten markedly better than what they were in 2020.
Conservatives can't seem to win elections these days...they constantly getting blown out. Their pet issues are toxic. They are fascists who can't govern democratically so they act above the law.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
Every accusation is a projection.